Flutterama blog

November 19, 2009

English Premier League Gameweek 13 Preview

Thank God that’s over with. We can rest easy now that we know that New Zealand have conquered Bahrain, and Macedonia triumphed over Canada, and my sincere gratitude goes to FIFA for ensuring that Premier League and Championship fans have been denied seeing their teams in action for another two weeks as a result. At least the FA managed to fill their coffers via one of the more pointless run-outs for the England B team though. I’m sure the fans will see the benefit of that.

So, back to League action again, and let’s get ready for all the post-match interviews using injuries incurred during the international friendlies as excuses for sides that lose in the following fixtures:

1) Liverpool v Man.City: What had started as a season full of expectation for these two now looks like becoming a struggle to fend off the likes of Stoke and Sunderland as they find themselves eleven and ten points off the pace respectively. The fact that City have drawn five consecutive League games is a concern, but it is the stature of the teams they have drawn with that is the real problem, and is reminiscent of Liverpool’s troubles from last season, when home draws against sides like Stoke, Fulham, West Ham and Hull denied them the title. This is a fixture that is usually quite tight. Before last season’s 1-1 draw, the five previous meetings at Anfield had all ended in home wins by a single goal margin. As always, it is wise to check on the availability of Liverpool’s top players before placing a bet, as if Torres and Gerrard are both fit, I fancy a high scoring home win. If they aren’t, I fancy a score draw, If Gerrard is fit, but Torres isn’t, ……………………………..oh, forget it.

2) Birmingham v Fulham: Birmingham appear to be doing just enough to keep their noses out of the danger zone at the moment, but they are going to have to improve their shocking goal tally at St.Andrew’s if that form is to continue. Every other side in the League has managed more than City’s paltry four goals in six home matches so far, but Saturday’s visitors are not exactly prolific themselves, so don’t expect a match teeming with goal-mouth action. Fulham have put together a five match unbeaten run in the League while City are unbeaten in three, and in what is traditionally a tight, low-scoring affair, I expect those runs to continue with a 0-0 or 1-1 scoreline.

3) Burnley v Aston Villa: This fixture hasn’t been played in the League since 1976, and, incredibly, the last Villa victory in a League encounter at Turf Moor came shortly before the abdication of Edward VIII. It was always rumoured that another defeat for his beloved Burnley was the last straw for him. Anyway, Burnley continued their remarkable introduction to Premier League life with a thrilling 3-3 draw at Man.City last time out, but I can’t help feeling that they have enjoyed more than their fair share of luck along the way, which must surely run out sooner or later. Opponents have missed penalties, had perfectly good goals ruled out, and Burnley’s penalties have not all been entirely convincing awards either. Villa put their own misfortune from their 2-1 defeat at West Ham firmly behind them by tonking Bolton next time out, and now that the goals look like they have started to flow, we may see a few more convincing victories from them, particularly away from home, where they will undoubtedly be allowed more space to play their speedy passing game. I fancy a few goals, and I fancy Villa to get more of them than Burnley.

4) Chelsea v Wolves: The last time Wolves were in the Premier League, they had the temerity to take a 2-1 lead within an hour at Stamford Bridge. They lost 5-2 in the end, though, and a similar outcome may await them here. Without the 2.

5) Hull v West Ham: Blimey. This won’t be one for the faint-hearted, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a red card or two features along with some tasty tackling. Hull managed to clamber over West Ham and out of the bottom three with their injury time winner against Stoke, and I don’t think it is any coincidence that Jimmy Bullard made his first full appearance of the season in that match. How West Ham must rue the day they let him leave for Peterborough as a youngster. He will be absolutely vital for the Tigers if they are to stay up, and will probably also be grateful for the two week break he will have experienced following his side’s victory. The two week break may also assist Carlton Cole’s chances of recovery in time for this match, but even if he makes it, Bullard’s presence should ensure that the Tigers have enough adventure and spirit about them to pull further away from trouble with another narrow victory.

6) Sunderland v Arsenal: Much fuss was made of how Sunderland deserved to take points away from White Hart Lane in their last outing, but it has to be said that Tottenham’s experimental formation allowed the Black Cats far too much time and space in the first hour of the game, and they were less impressive once Niko Kranjcar came on and Spurs reverted to 4-4-2 just after the hour mark. At least their captain Lorik Cana should return for this encounter, but this is not a fixture that Sunderland have enjoyed in recent years. Prior to last season’s 1-1 draw, Arsenal had won to nil on their previous four visits, including two 3-0s and a 4-0. Robin van Persie’s injury may not be as much of a hindrance to Arsenal as you may think, as the stats show that there is little difference in Arsenal’s results whether he is playing or not. So, as no side comes anywhere near Arsenal’s impressive total of 16 goals in six away matches so far, they may well be able to add another two or three to bury Sunderland here.

7) Man.U. v Everton: Despite the customary referee-baiting, whingeing and general unpleasantness from their manager, United’s defeat at Chelsea was really no surprise taking into account the relatively ordinary form that they have shown so far this season since the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo. Their visitors here have also failed to reach the heights of last season’s form, and a victory at Upton Park can confidently be seen as just papering over the cracks. The Toffees have an awful record at Old Trafford in recent years, not having won there since 1992, and as both of their victories away from home this season have come in unconvincing fashion against sides currently in the bottom three, I think we can expect United to get back on track here.

8) Bolton v Blackburn: Just when Gary Megson was starting to win a few of the fans over with a string of decent results, along came Chelsea to sow the seeds of doubt with two 4-0 drubbings in a week, followed by an equally dispiriting 5-1 caning at Villa Park last time out. This is not an ideal match in which to start putting things right, either, as Blackburn haven’t lost at Bolton since this fixture was played in the Championship in 2000. This season, Rovers boast the worst away record in the Premier league, with five defeats from five matches and only three goals scored. However, as their last three hosts have been Man.U., Chelsea and Arsenal, the list of excuses is as long as Sam Allardyce’s miserable face. It may not be pretty (the match, that is), and with both sides hovering dangerously above the drop zone, and local pride at stake, there may also be plenty of work for the referee to do, but in any case, I think Rovers should be able to pick up their first away point or points of the season.

9) Stoke v Portsmouth: Matching Blackburn’s paltry three away goals are Portsmouth, and that is not a record you want to take to the Britannia, where Stoke pride themselves on narrow wins. The only crumb of comfort for Pompey looking forward to this trip is that Stoke seem to have developed a worrying suicidal tendency in recent weeks, having thrown away leads against Wolves and Hull to end up with just a solitary point from those two matches. Actually, I’ve just thought of another crumb of comfort, as a 4-0 victory over Stoke in the Carling Cup a few weeks ago should provide Portsmouth with at least a little confidence, despite the Potters having rested a few players for that match. Anyway, neutrals will hope that this match follows the pattern of the last 15 minutes of last season’s meeting, when a drab, unadventurous 0-0 game was transformed by a burst of four quickfire goals being shared, sealed by an injury time own goal from Ryan Shawcross. Pompey haven’t won at Stoke since 1995, and I don’t expect them to on Sunday either, but they should be able to take a point home with their hosts in such nervous form.

10) Tottenham v Wigan: If Harry Redknapp has learned his lesson regarding team tactics following the shock battering they received before going on to beat Sunderland, Wigan could be in for a rough afternoon at White Hart Lane as Spurs look to maintain their bid for a Champions League spot. Wigan are a funny lot to try and predict though. They remain the only side to have won at Villa Park so far, and also at Turf Moor, where Man.U. and Everton count among the vanquished. They have never won at White Hart Lane, but have drawn two of their five visits in League and Cup. The other three, however, ended in 3-1 or 4-0 drubbings, so which one do we go for this year? If Tottenham have all of their strikers available, this could be a convincing home win.

OK, for those of you who are nervous of including away sides in your accumulators, how about combining Chelsea, Watford, Millwall and Chesterfield in a £10 four-timer that would return £46.34 with bet365 if all won their matches. If you don’t mind including an away side, try adding Livingston to bring the potential return up to £72.82, also with bet365.

Good Luck!
Posted by Nick