Flutterama blog

November 26, 2009

English Premier League Gameweek 14 Preview

It must be hard enough to raise your players’ spirits after a 3-0 defeat, or conceding a last second equalizer, but how on earth do you approach the task when you have conceded nine goals in one match, eight of them in one catastrophic half? I certainly don’t envy Roberto Martinez and his staff this week as they prepare for Sunderland’s visit, but I at least expect Wigan’s fans to get fully behind their side as they attempt to ensure that the damage isn’t lasting, particularly as the players have offered to refund the money paid out by the fans that travelled to White Hart Lane. History is not on their side though, as the last team to concede nine in one Premiership match, Ipswich Town, went on to lose their next six matches, the first five of them without even scoring a goal.

There was another interesting side note to Wigan’s defeat on Sunday. Amidst all the overblown furore over Thierry Henry’s handball earlier in the week, we yet again heard the customary simplistic, knee-jerk calls for video evidence to be used for any controversial decisions, without any thought whatsoever of the possible drawbacks of going down that route. It would take me three or four bulletins to go through all of the arguments against the introduction of that particular innovation, but a prime example occurred with Paul Scharner’s goal for Wigan at White Hart Lane, following which Tottenham’s fans and players were appealing that Scharner had handled the ball before scoring. We were shown video replays from four different angles, none of which conclusively proved whether the ball was controlled with his chest or his arm. Imagine the length of time a video referee would have had to study the footage in that incident, and even then a large percentage of fans and players would have disagreed with the outcome anyway. Just one more thought. If Scharner did handle the ball before firing home, I think it would only be courteous of Wigan to offer Tottenham the chance to replay the match.

The fixture list has thrown up some closely matched encounters this week throughout the top Leagues and indeed in the FA Cup second round, hence the heavy Scottish bias in my selections later on, but we can certainly look forward to yet more tremendous entertainment from most of these matches (once you get past the first two):

1) Blackburn v Stoke: I’m writing this before Blackburn’s midweek trip to Fulham, but I would imagine that the recent improvement in their form since their 5-0 caning at Chelsea would have them looking forward to this fixture with thoughts of pulling even further away from the danger zone. Indeed, in this match last season, while Stoke were continuing to enhance their reputation as a side to be taken seriously at this level, Rovers managed to take a three goal lead within 27 minutes, and then comfortably held onto that scoreline. Bolton’s poor attitude in Sunday’s defeat to Rovers may have contributed a great deal to Blackburn dominating that match in a way that may not be quite so straightforward on Saturday, but I still feel that a home win may be the outcome.

2) Fulham v Bolton: Fulham appeared strangely uncompetitive in Saturday’s defeat at Birmingham but this opposition should be far more to their liking, particularly as Bolton are in the midst of a poor run that has seen them lose four consecutive matches in League and Cup without even putting up a fight. Rumours of unrest behind the scenes are also a major concern. Fulham have won this fixture 2-1 on three of the last four occasions it has been played in the League, and on current form, odds of 8/1 at skybet.com against that happening again look very fair indeed.

3) Man.City v Hull: As I’ve mentioned before, the return of Jimmy Bullard has provided a distinct boost to Hull’s chances of avoiding relegation, and what on the face of it looked a very difficult fixture for the Tigers on Saturday now has the promise of a high-scoring, free-flowing encounter similar to Hull’s match against West Ham last Saturday, and City’s last home match against Burnley. There were certainly plenty of goals in this fixture last season, and you may recall Phil Brown’s half-time team talk which took place on the pitch as Hull found themselves 4-0 down, before going on to lose 5-1. City have now drawn an incredible six consecutive League matches, and in the circumstances, I am prepared to have a little bit of the 100/1 on offer at sportingbet.com for this match to end 3-3.

4) Portsmouth v Man.U.: Just when Paul Hart thought he had got his side up and running with two wins and a draw from four League matches, consecutive away defeats at Blackburn and Stoke have drawn the veil of depression back over Fratton Park. However, despite only having seven points to their name, they are still well in touch with the sides directly above them, but will need to rapidly improve their home form in particular, where five of their six matches have ended in defeat. So, who better to welcome to the South Coast on Saturday than the Champions? United’s form at Portsmouth is actually quite patchy, with just two wins in six Premier League visits, and last season, it took a solitary Darren Fletcher goal to separate the teams. However, players of the stature of Campbell, Johnson, Crouch and Defoe featured on the Portsmouth team sheet that day. This season, with names like Brown, Mullins, Wilson and Smith gracing the home line-up, the result could be the same, but far more emphatic.

5) West Ham v Burnley: This should be the place for goals on Saturday. A “0” hasn’t featured in the last ten West Ham matches, and with both sides looking a little too gung-ho for their managers’ liking, that run could well be extended here. Three of the Hammers’ last five matches have also seen one side or the other throwing away a two goal lead, and it must be a source of great frustration for Gianfranco Zola that he has been unable to encourage his side to hold onto a lead, as too many more draws obtained from winning positions will inevitably result in relegation. After drawing a blank in their first four away games, Burnley have suddenly come to life in front of goal, with five goals in their last two road trips, but only one point has been gained as a result. With us not being able to rely on either side from a results point of view at present, it may pay to look at the number of goals scored in this match as the key to making a profit, and I would say that the 5/6 on offer at skybet.com for three or more goals in the match is a must. 

6) Wigan v Sunderland: So, the moment of truth for Roberto Martinez as he looks for his side to swiftly put Sunday’s debacle behind them. Coming off the back of an impressive victory over Arsenal, Sunderland would not appear to be the ideal visitors for Wigan this weekend, but it has to be said that the Black Cats’ record when visiting middle or lower-table placed teams this season has not been that impressive, with defeats at Stoke, Burnley and Birmingham so far. With Wigan also proving somewhat inconsistent to put it mildly, this really isn’t a match where the result can be confidently predicted, but it is worth pointing out that Sunderland haven’t won at Wigan in three Premiership attempts, and indeed the only goal they have registered was an own goal by Titus Bramble. The main question, though, is how well will Wigan recover from the events of last Sunday?

7) Aston Villa v Tottenham: …………and the main question here is how will such a thumping victory affect Spurs? It is no foregone conclusion that they will now proceed to dismiss any side that comes up against them, as there is the distinct possibility of over-confidence coming into their collective mentality if Harry Redknapp doesn’t manage to persuade his players to keep Sunday’s match in perspective. Having said that, Jermain Defoe has been in quite spectacular form throughout the whole season so far, and I can’t see either side managing to keep a clean sheet on Sunday. This has been a closely-fought fixture over the years, which was decided last season by a rare Darren Bent goal for Tottenham in a 2-1 victory, and I can’t see anything other than another tight match here. Score draw.

8) Wolves v Birmingham: This match has taken on huge significance for the hosts as their last two matches have clearly displayed their inability to live with the League’s big boys. They haven’t really shown that they can live the small boys either, to be honest, and have registered just one win at Molineux this season, which came against a depleted Fulham side. In Birmingham, they also face a team that is unbeaten on its last three visits to Wolverhampton, and is also now unbeaten in four Premier League matches. The last time this fixture was played in the Premier League, Birmingham scored first in a 1-1 draw. Last season in the Championship, Birmingham scored first in a 1-1 draw. 1-1 is available at 6/1 with bluesq.com.

9) Everton v Liverpool: This is a fixture that doesn’t always follow the formbook, which is probably just as well since Liverpool have won just one of their last ten matches in all competitions, and Everton have won just one of their last nine (not including Wednesday’s match at Hull as this is being written on Tuesday). Of the two under-achieving sides, I have rather more confidence in Liverpool, though, as they haven’t actually been playing that badly in recent weeks, and it is just one or two lapses in concentration at the back that have resulted in them amassing so many draws rather than wins. Everton, on the other hand, seem to be incapable of showing anything like the same spirit and determination that served them so well last season, and a season of meandering around the lower reaches of the table seems to be the likely outcome at present. Still no Torres, but Steven Gerrard’s presence should ensure that his teammates can battle their way to a long-awaited victory.

10) Arsenal v Chelsea: I think we’re all aware of how impressive Chelsea’s results have been since their defeat at Villa Park in October, but some remain to be convinced due to the quality of the opposition they have faced in victories over Bolton, Wolves and Blackburn. Let’s not forget, though, that Manchester United were also defeated during that period, and possibly just as significant is last season’s renewal of this fixture, where Chelsea trounced their hosts 4-1. Arsenal themselves had been in sparkling form prior to last week’s disappointing effort in defeat at Sunderland. My opinion is that Arsene Wenger will be treating that as a one-off following the international break, with his players having been spread around the world playing for their countries over the preceding days, and I certainly don’t think we will witness as one-sided an encounter as we did last season. It may be worth waiting until after the midweek Champions League games to place bets on this match while we wait to see whether either side’s players suffer significant injuries, but a high quality entertaining match should be enjoyed nevertheless.

As I said earlier, the fixtures throughout England are generally very difficult to call this week, so how about delving into the Scottish FA Cup matches with a £10 accumulator on Morton, Ross County, Stenhousemuir and Stirling Albion that would return £45.18 with William Hill if all won their matches.

Good luck!  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Posted by Nick