Flutterama blog

November 5, 2009

English Premier League Gameweek 12 Preview

29 more goals, including some quite breathtaking efforts, 9 red cards and no end of controversy. I don’t want to come across as a marketing agent for the Premier League, but we really are being treated to an excellent spectacle this season, although it was no surprise that the only goalless game took place at St.Andrew’s. There has been a great deal of coverage in the past few days of the record number of red cards on a single Premier League Saturday, but despite the protestations from a number of the managers involved, and the appeals from Liverpool over their two contributions to the tally, I really don’t think the referees in most cases had any option. The only player who can count himself a little unfortunate in my opinion was Radoslav Kovac of West Ham, who probably didn’t even see Darren Bent approaching from behind as he attempted to clear the ball, only to make contact with Bent’s tender parts and draw his second yellow card of the match.

Just one more round of Premier League fixtures before possibly the most pointless international break of the season, as the top two divisions halt for a handful of World Cup play-off matches that could easily have been played over two midweeks, but here we go anyway, starting at Villa Park:

1) Aston Villa v Bolton: I’m having to write this before Villa’s midweek trip to Upton Park, so it would be wise to wait until that result is known before placing a bet. However, Bolton head to Villa Park with defensive problems that have resulted in them failing to keep a clean sheet in the League all season, and conceding 14 goals in their last five matches in League and Cup. Jlloyd (!) Samuel will also be missing after his red card against Chelsea last weekend, and it is also worth pointing out that Bolton have conceded four goals on each of their last two visits to Villa Park. As I mentioned last week, though, Villa are having far more trouble scoring this season than last, and despite a strong home record that reads W3 D1 L1, they have only managed seven goals in those five matches. While Bolton are certainly capable of securing at least a point here, if Villa’s front line can spring into more effective action, a narrow home win would be quite a likely outcome.

2) Blackburn v Portsmouth: Rovers will be pleased to be facing a home match this weekend as they boast a decent record at Ewood Park to match Villa’s that I mentioned earlier, whereas they have lost all five away matches, conceding 18 goals in the process. This could be a very keenly fought encounter, though, as Aruna Dindane’s training sessions at Portsmouth, which have presumably recently involved a banjo and an Aberdeen Angus, finally paid off in good style last weekend as he notched a hat-trick against Wigan to erase memories of his dreadful misses in previous matches. This fixture hasn’t produced a draw since 2000, and the fact that both sides are desperate for the points to pull away from trouble leads me to believe that we won’t see one on Saturday either. With the effects of their swine flu outbreak still perhaps taking its toll on some of their players, I’m happy to plump for an away win here.

3) Man.City v Burnley: Too many draws are hampering City’s progress up the table, and following Sunday’s stalemate at St.Andrew’s, they have now drawn four on the trot in the League. There is surely no better way to end that run, though, than to welcome a side who have lost all five of their previous away matches, and conceded five goals on each of their last two visits to the blue side of Manchester. Home win.

4) Tottenham v Sunderland: As one striker begins a suspension (Kenwyne Jones), another returns from his own ban (Jermain Defoe), and I think that could be the key to the outcome of this match. Prior to last season’s 2-1 defeat at White Hart Lane, Spurs had won the previous seven of Sunderland’s visits, and I’m quite happy to put last weekend’s shoddy performance at Arsenal down to an isolated off day from a number of previously reliable performers. It is worth noting that Tottenham’s last thrashing by one of the title chasers (3-0 at Chelsea) was followed by a 5-0 pummeling of Burnley, so despite Darren Bent being particularly keen to get one over his old manager, Spurs should be able to record a victory here.

5) Wolves v Arsenal: I always fear for sides like Wolves when Arsenal come to town as they are capable of simply tearing the division’s more ponderous defences apart. The last time Wolves beat Arsenal at home, their goal was scored by Mel Eves (remember him?), which will give you an idea of how this fixture usually progresses. Wolves have scored one goal on each of the last seven occasions this match has taken place in the League, and they may do so again, but I don’t think the Gunners will stop at one.

6) Hull v Stoke: Aren’t you glad Sky picked this one for live coverage? Satellite dish fitters up and down the country must be terribly overworked this week trying to get all the new installations completed in time. Anyway, the whispering campaign against Phil Brown that started midway through last season looks like it could be nearing its inevitable conclusion, but I had to feel sorry for him last Saturday when what seemed to be a perfectly good (and quite spectacular) equalizing goal at Burnley was disallowed for the most minor of infringements in the defensive wall, and the earlier concession of a penalty to give Burnley the lead also looked rather harsh. Stoke failed to keep their impressive first half display going into the second half against Wolves on Saturday, but following a week of “gentle reminders” in training from Tony Pulis, I am sure they can continue their fine recent form at Hull, where they have won three and drawn one of their last four visits.

7) West Ham v Everton: Last week, I pointed out the advantage to West Ham from a confidence point of view of recovering from two goals down to draw 2-2 as they did against Arsenal, rather than letting a two goal lead slip to draw 2-2. So what do they go and do in their next match? Unbelievable stuff, and as I am writing this prior to their midweek match with Villa, it will be interesting to see the effect that the outcome of Saturday’s match at Sunderland has had on their players. On Sunday, they face a visit from an underperforming Everton side who will also have to deal with a Thursday night visit from Benfica, against whom David Moyes will surely play his strongest side. Tiredness and a lack of confidence may hold Everton back slightly, but they at least have a fine recent record of having won on their last three visits to Upton Park in League and Cup, and I expect an open match with a few goals, but I don’t expect a home win.

8) Wigan v Fulham: You have to take your hat off to Roy Hodgson, who has inspired an underwhelming looking squad to a six match unbeaten run in all competitions (including matches against Roma and Liverpool) and a comfortable mid-table position with the promise of a much higher finish by the end of the season. His achievements also come with a refreshing degree of honesty and decency for which he should be applauded, and from which certain other managers could learn plenty of lessons. Sunday’s encounter with Wigan may not be the most thrilling match you will ever witness, particularly if recent renewals are anything to go by as the last five meetings at the DW have featured just four goals. The last three of those games have been drawn, and unless Fulham concede the first goal early on, another tight, unspectacular afternoon might well be on the cards. 0-0.

9) Chelsea v Man.United: Those who started to write Chelsea off after their error-strewn defeat at Villa Park a few weeks ago have been made to choke on their words in no uncertain terms as the Blues have won all four matches since then with an incredible goal tally of 17 scored and none conceded. If I was Alex Ferguson (sorry, just made myself a little bit sick with that thought), I would be very concerned about this trip because United have failed to really convince neutrals so far, despite finding themselves in second place, and there appear to be very few faults to be found with Chelsea’s squad at present. Only one goal has been conceded in Chelsea’s five home wins out of five so far, while 15 goals have hit their opponents’ nets. United have also failed to win at Stamford Bridge since 2003, and whatever side they are able to put out on Sunday, I think they face another defeat, and a convincing one at that.

10) Liverpool v Birmingham: Monday night’s match features Birmingham sending out a side to frustrate their hosts, gradually realizing that if they are a little more ambitious, they could actually get points from the game, and then grabbing a 1-0 win with a second half goal followed by a successful rearguard action. Fanciful? Maybe not if you examine City’s previous Premiership visits to Anfield, where they have won one and drawn three of their five encounters. If you’re quick, you could take advantage of sportingbet.com’s generous odds of 16/1 for no goalscorer, and 22/1 for a 1-0 away win.

A little four-timer for you this week. A £10 accumulator on Man.City, Blackpool, Dundee and Celtic would return a welcome £40.38 with bet365 if all won their matches.

Good Luck!
Posted by Nick