Flutterama blog

December 10, 2009

English Premier League Gameweek 16 Preview

Ever heard of Paul Weaver? Neither had I until about 4:25 on Sunday when he scored his first ever goal for East Stirling to secure the final leg of last week’s suggested accumulator. In fact, none of the five sides selected even conceded a goal, which made for a rather more comfortable weekend than usual, and those of you who followed the advice would now be collecting a return of nearly 6.4 times your stake. I’ll have a crack at handing the bookies their money back later, but first let’s concentrate on another round of Premier League action to follow up from last week’s matches that produced the usual array of controversy, great goals and spirited comebacks, together with four penalty misses from three of the League’s star names, plus Aruna Dindane.

We start at the Britannia with a mouth-drying encounter:

1) Stoke v Wigan: As I write, there are rumours of unrest behind the scenes at Stoke which, if true, would undermine the whole basis of unity and team spirit upon which Stoke’s Premier League status is built. There hasn’t appeared to be any sign of that on the pitch though, as a return of 20 points from 15 games exactly matches their tally from last season, when they comfortably survived. This fixture provided them with one of their many home successes as well, but the result this time around will depend on whether Wigan put in a powerful display similar to their first half performance against Birmingham last week, or simply roll over as they did in the second half. Such imponderables make predictions even tougher than usual, but I’m not sure that Wigan will manage to win on a ground where only Man.U. and Chelsea have achieved that feat this season.

2) Birmingham v West Ham: Credit is due to Alex McLeish (never thought I would say that) for the way his side fought back after the interval to take the points at Wigan last weekend following an inept first half showing. The Blues’ unbeaten run now stands at an impressive six matches, so you have to fear for their struggling visitors on Saturday. The only positive note for the Hammers heading into this match is their record at St.Andrew’s, where they have won five of their last six encounters, and haven’t lost since 1985. As I mentioned last week, West Ham haven’t conceded fewer than two goals in a match since 12th September, and with injuries to key players and the inevitable low morale, that run could well continue with a 2-1 defeat on Saturday.

3) Bolton v Man.City: I’m not sure I can remember a manager surviving in his job when faced with such levels of vitriolic abuse and contempt from his club’s own fans, but Gary Megson appears to be benefiting from welcome support from his chairman, Phil Gartside, despite the predicament that Bolton are in. Failure to take even a point at Molineux last week would have been the last straw for many Bolton fans, and they certainly won’t be relishing a visit from a side who have just beaten Arsenal and Chelsea. Bolton have recorded just one win in their last nine League and Cup matches, but their visitors have only lost once all season, and should be able to continue their winning run here.

4) Burnley v Fulham: Get a grip guys! I couldn’t quite believe the “Zamora for England” calls from some quarters following his goal at the weekend, but I suppose one goal in his last six appearances is quite a feat for him nevertheless. Burnley’s admirable home form should be tested to the full on Saturday by a confident and well-organised Fulham side who now find themselves in eighth position following victory over Sunderland. The Cottagers do have a shocking record at Turf Moor to overcome, though, having lost fourteen of their last fifteen visits in League and Cup, and not having won there since shortly after UN troops recaptured Seoul in the Korean War, and while Roy Hodgson’s parents were preparing the spam sandwiches for his fourth birthday party. Still, with Bobby Zamora in your ranks, anything is possible, and I fancy a high scoring draw here.

5) Chelsea v Everton: Following Everton’s late comeback against Spurs last Sunday, it makes you wonder why David Moyes saw fit to start with just Jo up front when he had far more dangerous options on the bench with much longer names as well in Louis Saha and Yakubu. I do believe, though, that the 2-2 result told us more about Tottenham’s players’ state of mind after going 2-0 up than any resurgence in Everton’s general performance, and they may be set for a depressing afternoon at the hands of an angry Chelsea side on Saturday. Chelsea’s last two away defeats were swiftly followed by comfortable home victories against Liverpool and Blackburn, and I think the Toffees may feel the backlash. Surprisingly, Everton have gained draws on their last three visits to Stamford Bridge, so it may be wise to be slightly cautious, but nevertheless, a home win may still be the safest option.

6) Hull v Blackburn: Jimmy Bullard now knows the full extent of his latest knee injury, and I’m sure I’m not alone in hoping that the anticipated two month lay-off does not lead to further problems. His absence for this match makes Hull’s task all the more difficult. City’s recent unbeaten run was quickly dismissed by Aston Villa last Saturday, and a Blackburn side with just one defeat in their last six matches in League and Cup will be itching to heap a bit more misery on their hosts. Rovers were 2-1 victors at the KC last season in an ill-tempered match that saw both teams reduced to ten men, and I see no reason to expect anything different this time around.

7) Sunderland v Portsmouth: Our old friend Desperate Dindane didn’t let us down in the first half against Burnley last week as he passed the tamest of penalties straight to Brian Jensen, and followed up with an even tamer header from the rebound. To be fair, he was slightly more Zinedine Dindane in the second half as he played a part in his side’s first goal, and then somewhat fortunately watched his miscued header bounce high into the net for the second. A welcome three points for Pompey has tightened up the basement battle a little, and if Sunderland are not careful, their away form could yet drag them into trouble as well. One goal in their last four matches has been the main problem, but they have remained very strong at home and could well bounce back with a victory here. Portsmouth have managed to upset the odds with victories on two of their last three visits to Sunderland, but they have only managed a pathetic three goals on the road so far, so I fancy a home win.

8) Tottenham v Wolves: Kenny Hibbitt and Martin Chivers were among the scorers last time Wolves took maximum points from White Hart Lane, and despite last weekend’s win over Bolton, I can’t see any of the current crop of Wanderers’ players making history here. Harry Redknapp should be laying into his players as I write for their casual and lax attitude after taking a 2-0 lead at Everton last Sunday, and I’m sure he won’t settle for anything less than a convincing victory on Saturday. Only once has this been a Premier League fixture, and a Robbie Keane hat-trick against his former club helped Spurs to a 5-2 victory. I don’t think it will be quite as convincing on Saturday. 4-1.

9) Man.U. v Aston Villa: Who can forget the dramatic end to this fixture last season when Federico Macheda came off the bench to make a name for himself with a dramatic late winner? Oh......... you had forgotten. Macheda certainly hasn’t progressed in the way that some were expecting since that afternoon in April, but his teammates are not slowing down in their pursuit of Chelsea, and we should be in for an entertaining afternoon at Old Trafford. This fixture has produced thirteen goals in the last three renewals, but the lion’s share have gone to United as they have won the last seven home meetings in League and Cup. There’s always the chance that Villa will sneak a draw to end that run here, but United always seem capable of coping with whatever their visitors have to throw at them, and can take advantage of Villa’s unimpressive away form so far this season.

10) Liverpool v Arsenal: A tasty one to finish off with, particularly when you think back to last season’s encounter that ended 4-4 following seven second half goals, two of which were scored in injury time, and a four goal haul for Andrei Arshavin. In fact, this has been an incredibly productive fixture recently, with scorelines of 4-1, 4-2 and 3-6 having been recorded during the last three years in League and Cup. With both sides suffering from injuries but desperate to show their fans that this will not be a wasted season, another open, exciting and unpredictable match may well be in prospect. By the way, you can get 10/1 at sportingbet.com for no goalscorer.

Right then, it’s hard enough to get one accumulator up, never mind two in a row, but I’ll suggest combining Tottenham, Reading, Southampton, Torquay and Dundee in a £10 five-fold that would return £74.29 with Paddy Power if all won their matches.

Good Luck! 
Posted by Nick