Flutterama blog

February 19, 2009

English Premier League Gameweek 26 Preview

So, two more Premiership managerial casualties during the short international and FA Cup break, and it seems as though the removal of Tony Adams has had an immediate effect on Portsmouth's underperforming players. It always appeared that Adams's appointment was made more from a financial perspective than a footballing one, and his reign seemed doomed from the start. No surprise there then, but it remains to be seen whether a change of manager will be able to heal the obvious rifts that have affected Chelsea's squad in recent months. By all accounts, Guus Hiddink is a firm disciplinarian, which is probably exactly what is required to put some of the club's trouble makers in their place, and he couldn't start with a more tricky assignment than he faces on Saturday lunchtime:

1) Aston Villa v Chelsea: Ray Wilkins was probably very pleased with himself that he managed to lead his side to victory in his one match in charge of Chelsea, but shots of Guus Hiddink during the match at Watford told a very different story, and I bet there will be some harsh words at Chelsea's training ground this week. My one piece of advice to Hiddink would be not to let Wilkins anywhere near the door marked "Manager" in the coming months. Perhaps the door marked "Exit" would be more suited to a man of his managerial qualities. Anyway, it is impossible to predict how Chelsea's players will react in the immediate future to the replacement of Scolari, but looking at their past performances at Villa would lead you to be rather cautious as to their chances on Saturday. Their last victory at Villa Park was astonishingly nearly ten years ago, and they have only managed one goal in their last four visits. Perhaps with Villa having drawn at home to Liverpool, United and Arsenal this season, that may be the way to go here as well.

2) Arsenal v Sunderland: I imagine this match could break a trend as far as Arsenal are concerned. They have never scored less than twice at home to Sunderland in the seven previous Premiership matches and you have to go back to 1983 for Sunderland's last League victory at Arsenal. In recent weeks, however, Arsenal's goals seem to have dried up a bit, and three consecutive draws have left them firmly outside the Champions League places. The welcome goalscoring return of Eduardo on Monday night will, however, have provided a boost to the entire club. Sunderland have meanwhile dragged themselves up to mid-table, seven points clear of danger, and they have their strike force and the return of Kieran Richardson to thank for that. If pressed, I would plump for a narrow home win here, but I really wouldn't be surprised if Sunderland managed to hold on for a draw in a low scoring encounter.

3) Bolton v West Ham: Good and bad news for West Ham in advance of this one. Unfortunately, they will be missing the rejuvenated Carlton Cole, but on the plus side, Luis Boa Morte is also out injured. West Ham's performance in front of goal after Cole's departure in Saturday's cup tie with Middlesbrough was truly awful. They also have a poor record at Bolton to confront. Their last win there came in 1995, and one goal scored in their last seven League and Cup visits is a shocking total. The Hammers need to guard against thinking they have already escaped relegation, and a shock may await them here if they are not at the top of their game.

4) Middlesbrough v Wigan: This has probably already been booked into last place on Match of the Day (if they show it at all). A team who haven't scored in their last four League games hosting a side who have notched just once in their last five, and that was a penalty! At least Wigan have a striker with a point to prove against his old club, but this promises to be a turgid struggle to watch as well as to play in. Early odds have this one priced up as odds-on to produce under three goals, and while that is fair, it is merely another reason to avoid the match completely.

5) Stoke v Portsmouth: The big test for the post-Adams effect. It's all very well beating a side who are terrible on the road, but Pompey are still right in the thick of the relegation struggle and this will be a vital match for both teams. Stoke have just one win from their last eleven, while Pompey have one in their last ten. Shamefully for Mark Hughes, both sides' sole wins during those periods were against Man.City. I still fancy Stoke for the drop, and they remain without their not-so-secret weapon Rory Delap on Saturday, however, they may still be able to salvage a point from this game that would be most unsatisfactory for both teams.

6) Man.U. v Blackburn: I'm writing this before United's home match with Fulham, and it will be a surprise if they haven't already extended their clean sheet record prior to Blackburn's visit, but Rovers have actually achieved a relatively decent scoring record at Old Trafford in recent years, so it wouldn't be a major shock if they were the ones to finally break through. Even if they do, United should still score more though.

7) Fulham v West Brom: 1967 was the last time the Baggies managed to win a League game at Fulham, and they won't want reminding of their last visit, which resulted in a 6-1 walloping on their way to relegation. That season, only Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea won more home games than Fulham, and the Cottagers are on their way to a similar record this time around, with only Man.United having achieved more home wins so far this season. With West Brom having scored just six times away from home, I think home win number eight for Fulham may well be the outcome here.

8) Liverpool v Man. City: Liverpool overcame their manager's misguided insistence that his squad is as good in depth as Man.United's by achieving a last-gasp win at Portsmouth last time out, and I'm sure Rafa Benitez won't be taking as many chances with his selections for this match, despite the probable continued absence of Steven Gerrard. The last three renewals of this fixture have ended 1-0. I don't see why that scoreline can't repeat itself on Saturday.

9) Newcastle v Everton: Considering Everton's lofty position in the table, I find it amazing that they have still recorded fewer home wins than West Brom, Stoke or Portsmouth. Good job they are away on Sunday then, their fans may think, but they have a poor recent record at St.James's Park, and haven't won there since 2000. United will meanwhile be boosted by their win at West Brom last time out, and also by the news that they won't have Joe Kinnear with them in training or on the touchline swearing at referees for some time. A tough one to call, but Everton's usually stubborn defence may be tested to the full here.

10) Hull v Tottenham: OK, I know we're talking about matches a long, long time ago, but I still find it strange that Spurs have only won once at Hull in nine previous visits. That win came in the days when clubs used to play each other home and away on Christmas Day and Boxing Day, and Spurs lost 3-1 at Boothferry Park the day after recording a 4-0 home win, and just a few days before Prohibition started in the US. Where was I? Oh, yes. Spurs are still rubbish away. Home win.

The suggested treble from the last bulletin was reduced to a double by the weather, but the snow couldn't stop the remaining two selections from obliging and providing a welcome payout. If you fancy another go this weekend, there are a number of short priced but supposedly strong sides at home to lowly opposition, so how about combining Leeds, Rangers, Peterhead, Stenhousemuir and Liverpool in an accumulator, which would return £54.93 for a £10 stake if successful with Paddy Power.

Good Luck!

Posted by Nick