Flutterama blog

February 26, 2009

English Premier League Gameweek 27 Preview

Blimey, here we go again. Another meeting of the International Football Association Board (or the whisky-soaked gravy train, to give it it's proper title) takes place next week where the agenda will include, amongst other wastes of time, a proposal to increase half time to 20 minutes. Apparently, players do not have enough time to rest at the moment! When you've stopped laughing, I should point out the obvious fact that this proposal is designed purely to bring in more advertising revenue for televised matches, and to provide more tedium for fans at all other matches who will have to endure yet another five minutes of the local territorial army running their dogs through hoops, or the spotty 15 year old X Factor hopeful squealing her way through "I Will Always Love You".

Any proposal of this kind that suits ITV should also be strongly opposed on the grounds that they in particular should not be allowed anywhere near football. A string of indictments over recent years including the marginalisation of all but the "Big Four", the scheduling of "The Championship" at 9:25 on a Sunday morning, not bothering to show the Euro 2008 final live or the Football League playoffs at all, and worst of all, David Pleat, culminated in the inadvertent cutting to an ad break just before Everton broke the near two hour deadlock in their FA Cup replay against Liverpool. I remember Jimmy Greaves once moaning (on ITV) that the general notion that the BBC do sport better than ITV is a myth. It isn't. Everybody does it better.

Only eight games in the Premiership this weekend due to the Carling Cup Final, and we start at Goodison Park:

1) Everton v West Brom: The loss of Mikel Arteta to a serious injury in Sunday's drab draw at Newcastle will be a big blow to Everton's European ambitions, but it shouldn't be more than a minor inconvenience against a side as poor on the road as West Brom. Their performance at Fulham on Sunday lacked any threat whatsoever, and they can expect nothing more than a convincing defeat in this match on a ground where their last League win came thirty years ago.

2) Arsenal v Fulham: After another comfortable home win, Fulham set out on their travels again to try and add a fourth goal to their pathetic total so far away from home. They have been rather unfortunate on their last couple of visits to the Emirates, losing to goals in the last six minutes on both occasions, but this could be the perfect time to try and hold on for the full ninety as Arsenal have now recorded three consecutive goalless draws against mediocre opposition. Andrei Arshavin looked an exciting addition to the squad until fatigue took over on Saturday, and with an extra week's training under his belt, he may be able to drag the Gunners out of their current lacklustre form. On the other hand, though, Fulham have proved themselves well capable of grinding out 0-0s on the road this season, so much will depend on whether Arsenal can find an early breakthrough.

3) Chelsea v Wigan: As happens so often, a change of manager seemed to have an immediate effect on Chelsea's spoilt players, and the resulting 1-0 win at Villa means that second place is just a win away. This fixture proved to be the final nail in the coffin of Chelsea's title ambitions last season as a last gasp Emile Heskey goal earned Wigan a 1-1 draw, but I think the Latics may be catching their hosts at precisely the wrong time on Saturday, and Chelsea could have this sewn up by half time.

4) Middlesbrough v Liverpool: OK Rafa, now do you believe what everyone else can see? Without both Torres and Gerrard, your alternatives are simply not good enough. No Premiership side has drawn more than Liverpool's total of ten matches this season, and when you look at the standard of opposition for most of those draws, it is easy to see where the Reds' title hopes have fallen down. Their hosts on Saturday desperately need to find some goals from somewhere, as they have now scored just one goal in their last nine League matches. On the plus side for Boro, though, Liverpool's record at the Riverside is nearly as bad, with last season's equaliser from Fernando Torres representing his side's first goal there in six attempts. Another 0-0? I wouldn't put you off backing it at 10/1 with bet365.

5) Hull v Blackburn: A survival points total has been tantalisingly close for Hull for many weeks now, but they seem almost petrified of taking the last few steps to safety. They seem particularly vulnerable at home, and the timing of Tottenham's late winner at the KC on Monday may have done more psychological damage than the result itself. In the circumstances, and given Rovers' battling performance last time out, you would have to fancy City's slide to continue in this match.

6) West Ham v Man.City: This could be another fixture where it pays to check recent history before placing a bet. On the face of it, you would expect plenty of goals between two sides who like to play an open, attacking style, but the Hammers have scored just once during City's last five visits in League and Cup, while City's total of three isn't a great credit to them either. The Hammers' defeat at Bolton wasn't a great surprise as their previous decent form had taken them so far up the table that they find themselves in the awkward position of thinking they have escaped relegation but not being close enough for European qualification. As most of us have seen with our own clubs at times, that is often a recipe for performances to tail off dramatically. Take this match lightly, and we may start to see a slide back down the table that may be more rapid than they could imagine.

7) Bolton v Newcastle: Both of these sides will probably find just enough to survive this season, and the return to fitness of some of United's more valuable players may enable them to repeat last year's victory in this fixture. Bolton have developed a frustrating habit of building good leads in matches only to suffer from the jitters and either throw away the lead or end up hanging on grimly. Now that Obafemi Martins in particular has had a bit of a run out after injury, I think Newcastle will be well placed to take advantage of the Trotters' nervous performances.

8) Aston Villa v Stoke: A few weeks ago, you would have fancied Villa to record a straightforward three goal victory in this fixture, but there have been one or two signs in their last three matches that their impressive form so far is starting to become tough to maintain all the way to the end of the season. Stoke will, of course, try and defend in numbers and catch their hosts on the break, but their record of no wins and three draws from thirteen away games so far shows that they are hopeless at making even that crude tactic work. If Villa score early, they should win comfortably.

For the first time this season, there is a heavy Premiership bias in this week's selections. If you placed a £10 accumulator on Chelsea, Everton, Bristol City and Aston Villa, your return would be £46.51 with Paddy Power if they all won.

Good luck!

Posted by Nick