Flutterama blog

March 19, 2009

English Premier League Gameweek 30 Preview

The interminable Carlos Tevez saga looks like it has finally reached a conclusion (despite the odious Neil Warnock's laughable claim for personal compensation) following Sheffield United's board deciding to drag the game through various courts and tribunals in order to gain millions of pieces of silver, requesting that they try and act like some sort of psychic pools panel and decide the outcome of games that have already taken place, but assuming that Tevez had not been a West Ham player at the time. The decision to bring the legal system into this matter has been a very dangerous and unwarranted precedent to set, but it looks like the next club to suffer financially from this sort of action may be Sheffield United themselves as it appears that the outrageous life-threatening assault on Barnsley's Iain Hume by United's thug of a captain, Chris Morgan, earlier this season may also result in legal action. United's reaction has been to claim that the incident was blown out of proportion and that the courts are the wrong place to settle football matters! It really would gladden the heart if the hypocrites are made to choke on their ill-gotten gains by a huge award being granted to the unfortunate Hume.

The next round of Premiership matches are the last before the 98th international break of the season. No wonder this season isn't due to end much before June:

1) Portsmouth v Everton: I'm not sure how true the old adage is that when you're struggling at the bottom, luck and events conspire against you, but it must surely seem apt to Portsmouth fans after last week's late Boro equaliser denied their side two extremely valuable points. Everton meanwhile continued on their superb run of just one defeat in 18 League and Cup matches with a convincing win over Stoke, and the Toffees will fancy their chances at Fratton Park now that several of their more important players are fit and in good form. This is usually quite a tight, well contested but low scoring fixture, which will suit Everton down to the ground as they have already notched five 1-0 away wins this season, and I wouldn't put you off backing a sixth one here.

2) Blackburn v West Ham: I don't think it will take Blackburn long to put last week's drubbing at Arsenal out of their minds as it wouldn't have been a fixture that they expected to gain points from towards their survival target anyway. This one is. Prior to narrowly winning their last two matches at Ewood Park, West Ham had conceded 28 goals in their previous 8 League visits, and Rovers certainly have the firepower to add to that total, particularly if Roque Santa Cruz recovers in time for this match. The problem is that nobody has won fewer home games than Blackburn this season, and only Middlesbrough have scored fewer goals at home. Rovers are therefore certainly overdue a convincing home win, and who's to say it won't come on Saturday.

3) Fulham v Man.United: It's tempting to look at Fulham's 4-0 home tonking by United in the FA Cup a few weeks ago and to instantly think that the same thing will happen here. The problem with that analysis is that we just don't know how United's players will react to the embarrassing home defeat to Liverpool last time out. We perhaps should have expected that defeat, as last season United drew their first home match unexpectedly, then won the next twelve and lost the next, just as they have done again this season. So, it may pay to look at how they recovered from their home loss to Man.City last season. Winning their next three domestic matches 4-0, 5-1 and 3-0 was a pretty devastating response, so Fulham may be due for another caning here, particularly as their 3-1 win at Bolton last week was due more to shocking defending than any great achievements by their strikers. Away win.

4) Stoke v Middlesbrough: This is just one of many desperate looking fixtures at the bottom of the table over the next few weeks, but the fact that this match is taking place at the Britannia may be the decisive factor. For a team still in deep trouble, Stoke's home form has been exceptional, with seven wins and four draws from fourteen matches, while Boro's pathetic total of eight goals away from home has contributed to their position as by far the lowest scoring side in England. It really is difficult to see Boro managing more than one goal in an away match, so for me the outcome will depend on Stoke's forwards, and I expect a narrow home win.

5) Tottenham v Chelsea: This should be a cracking match to watch, particularly as both sides have rediscovered some good form in recent weeks. Spurs can relax a bit in the knowledge that they have nearly secured their Premiership status with nine matches to go, while Chelsea have been given renewed hope by a run of four consecutive League wins and Man.U.'s defeat last week. You can fully expect an open, ill-tempered match full of incident, although whether the sides can repeat last season's tremendous 4-4 draw in this fixture is open to question.

6) West Brom v Bolton: This game and their next one, at home to Stoke, are obviously crucial to West Brom's survival hopes, but I can't help feeling that they will regret not having been more adventurous in taking advantage of a lacklustre West Ham performance on Monday night. The decision to leave Jay Simpson, their only capable forward, on the bench until the 80th minute was mystifying, but typical of Tony Mowbray's neglect since pre-season of the need to score goals to stay up. I can only imagine that Simpson was being rested in preparation for this match, in which case Bolton's defence will need to be a lot sharper than they were in last week's home defeat to Fulham. 2-1.

7) Newcastle v Arsenal: Now that Arsenal's (excluding Nicklas Bendtner) goalscoring problems appear to be at an end, you can look at their recent record and admire the fact that they have conceded just two goals in their last ten matches in all competitions. Even with the return of Michael Owen, you have to doubt whether Newcastle are the side to change that statistic dramatically. However, Arsenal's recent record in this fixture is not good. I expected to see a list of 2-0 and 3-0 victories when checking the outcome of recent renewals, but the Gunners have in fact won just two of their last ten visits to St.James's Park, and the last six matches have seen the two sides sharing just six goals. Nevertheless, I fear that Newcastle may be catching Arsenal at precisely the wrong time, and an away win could well push Newcastle into the bottom three.

8) Wigan v Hull: A draw in each of their remaining matches would probably be enough to see Hull secure a second Premiership season, so they would certainly have been more pleased with Saturday's draw against Newcastle than their visitors were. They will definitely need another battling performance like the one which gained them a 1-0 victory at Fulham last time they were on their travels to take anything from a stubborn, solid Wigan outfit this weekend. Wigan regained the winning thread courtesy of a lack of concentration from Sunderland last week, and I'm not sure that Hull's players will have such a disappointing attitude as Sunderland did as the finishing line appears so tantalisingly close. Expect a low scoring encounter, and in fact I wouldn't discount there being no goals at all.

9) Man.City v Sunderland: City remain the only team in England not to have drawn a home League match, and with Sunderland's playmaker Kieran Richardson still missing through suspension, I don't think that record will end here. Richardson appears vital to Sunderland's creativity, and when you also note that they have lost all four Premiership visits to City's grounds, another home win would appear the logical conclusion.

10) Liverpool v Aston Villa: If you predicted the outcome of matches purely on recent form, your only conclusion here would be a home win. It must be so frustrating for Liverpool fans that they can watch their side do the double over both United and Chelsea, but fail to put teams like Fulham, Stoke and Middlesbrough to the sword when straightforward victories seemed theirs for the taking. Meanwhile, Villa's fans have been adding themselves to the disgracefully long list of supporters who should be ashamed of themselves with their boorish reaction to a few poor results in a season in which their manager, players and even owner have performed above expectations. I used to think it was just at my club where many of the fans are so dreadfully intolerant, but we have increasingly witnessed similar reactions at clubs up and down the country, and even at clubs like Wolves, Arsenal and Liverpool, all of whom still look likely to be chasing trophies up to the last kick of the season. I think these people need a reality check and should imagine what it is like supporting a club like Luton, whose downward destiny was sealed even before this season had started. You don't know how lucky you are to be supporting a side in with a chance of actually winning something or qualifying for Europe. Anyway, back to the match, I will predict the outcome of this match purely on recent form and my conclusion is a home win.

It's about time we aimed for a big payout, so how about combining Man.U., Arsenal, MK Dons, Bury and Man.City in an accumulator which would return a tasty £117.10 to a £10 stake if successful.

Good luck!

Posted by Nick