April 23, 2009
As we enter the final few weeks of the season, it would be nice to build up a healthy bank with which to have a crack at the vital finals and play-off matches, and last week's successful treble certainly helped in no small measure, as victories for Peterhead, Wycombe and Brentford were all achieved without a goal being conceded. Another suggestion to boost your funds will follow after we've looked at the coming weekend's Premiership fixtures (please note this column was written prior to Wednesday's fixtures):
1) Bolton v Aston Villa: Despite last week's defeat at Portsmouth, Bolton probably need only another three or four points to secure another Premiership season, so what better way to get started than to welcome a side who have now failed to win any of their last eleven matches? A lack of wins hasn't meant a lack of entertainment though, and I think we can probably expect another end-to-end, flowing match similar to Villa's last couple of fixtures. Bolton may well be satisfied with a point from this match in the long run, and the last three renewals have ended as score draws, so could this one end up as Villa's first away draw of the season? I think so.
2) Everton v Man.City: While the result of Everton's FA Cup semi-final brought cheer to those who are heartily sick of Alex Ferguson's childish attempts to undermine Liverpool's title challenge by getting involved in an argument that had nothing to do with him, the manner in which they achieved it was most disappointing, as I was convinced they could have secured a relatively comfortable victory in normal time had they shown a little more adventure. Anyway, they returned to League action at their Cup Final opponents, Chelsea, on Wednesday, and now face a visit from possibly the tamest away side they could wish for as they try to secure fifth spot in the League. City have been shocking away all season, and also have a poor record at Goodison, where they have failed to win since 1992, so I think you can guess which way I'm going with this one.
3) Fulham v Stoke: What a tremendous effort we've witnessed from Stoke's much-maligned players and particularly from their manager, Tony Pulis, to have all but secured safety with five games still to play. Effective research, solid organisation and astute signings have all contributed to a success story that may well continue if sufficient funds are placed in the manager's control in the summer. There is a question mark as to how the players will react now that they have reached 39 points. If they think they are safe, a lack of concentration may lead to a few jitters during May, but I can't imagine that Pulis will allow that to happen. Most of their good work, however, has been achieved at home, and they remain vulnerable on the road, with just one win and 13 goals to show on their travels. That makes them particularly susceptible to a Fulham side eager to achieve their highest placing for a number of years, and a home win has to be the call here.
4) Hull v Liverpool: It's been on the cards for some time now, but Hull's slide down the table looks more likely as each week passes to end in relegation, as they appear to have lost the self-belief that guided them into the top four early in the season, and you have to wonder whether they are capable of achieving even one more win. Their 2-2 draw at Anfield in December was one of a number of notable performances that they simply and unsurprisingly haven't been able to maintain. A Liverpool side hungry to maintain their title challenge, and who have never lost to Hull, should be able to get their revenge as long as the tremendous efforts put in during their two exhilarating 4-4 draws in the last week haven't taken too much out of the players.
5) West Brom v Sunderland: West Brom's inevitable relegation will feel even more disastrous to their fans now that their bitter rivals, Wolves, have secured promotion back to the Premiership, and I'm not sure they will even be able to manage a victory in this match to cheer them up a bit. Sunderland's victory over Hull last weekend was vital, if not utterly convincing, and they are fortunate that the fixture list has given them a trip to one of their favourite hunting grounds to try and follow up with another valuable three points. Sunderland's last defeat at West Brom came in 1994, and with Kenwyne Jones and Djibril Cisse slowly easing their way back into goalscoring form after a worryingly long drought, I'm pretty sure thay can extend that run to keep their North East rivals at bay.
6) West Ham v Chelsea: The Hammers' admirable unbeaten run was maintained in an entertaining encounter at Villa Park last weekend, but this is an altogether different proposition as Chelsea have thoroughly enjoyed their last three Premiership visits to Upton Park, having scored eleven goals and conceded just two in three comfortable victories. Whether or not you still believe Chelsea are in the title race, local pride and a mutual loathing between the two sets of fans will ensure a raucous atmosphere and no holding back in any tackles made, as nine yellow cards and a red card in the last two meetings will prove. Gianfranco Zola and Steve Clarke will be most keen for their players to put on a performance against their previous employers to match the one that achieved a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge in December, but I just feel that this may be the match that finds West Ham's younger players slightly out of their depth, and a narrow away win would be my call.
7) Man.U. v Tottenham: Four consecutive Old Trafford defeats in League and Cup, with no win since 1989. This fixture usually results in a gallant performance but little return for Spurs, and if United have beaten Portsmouth on Wednesday, it is easy to imagine a similar outcome this time around. Spurs are ending the season relatively comfortably, and now need to guard against the old affliction that has seen them start each of the last few seasons with high hopes, only to see them dashed by September with a shocking start to their campaign. With a string of 1-0 results recorded by Spurs recently, it may take United a while to break them down, if they manage to at all, so I wouldn't recommend having a bet on this one until you see the line-ups, and I certainly see this as one of Liverpool's biggest hopes of seeing United drop points. Don't worry, though, Fergie. If United don't win, you can always blame the pitch, or get one of your slimier managerial friends to manufacture a slur on a rival boss. Pathetic.
8) Arsenal v Middlesbrough: Home win, you say? That's what most people thought last season and the season before, but they were wrong, as the Gunners needed late equalisers in both games to achieve 1-1 draws against ten-man opponents. Prior to those matches, though, Arsenal scored an incredible 16 goals in the three previous renewals, and if Adebayor and van Persie are able to play on Saturday and join the dangerous Andriy Arshavin, I wouldn't rule out a return to that sort of devastating form, particularly as Boro have still only managed a miserable nine goals away from home, avoiding defeat on just four occasions out of sixteen. The key to this match will be how long Boro can keep Arsenal at bay. If they concede early on, it may be curtains for them.
9) Blackburn v Wigan: Prior to last week's outburst from the deeply unpleasant Sam Allardyce, I couldn't have cared less who was relegated this season. Now I care. His rant against Rafa Benitez had all the hallmarks of a stitch-up between Allardyce and his hypocritical friend, Alex Ferguson, but this time Benitez made the wise decision to keep his mouth shut and not get drawn into another unseemly and tedious war of words. Given that Wigan have taken two consecutive four goal beatings, and also that they have never won at Ewood Park in five previous attempts, many will see this as an ideal opportunity for Blackburn to gain vital points and move away from the bottom three. I hope they get stuffed.
10) Newcastle v Portsmouth: If rumours are correct, Newcastle's last three home games could be absolute thrillers. It seems as though Alan Shearer may be prepared to risk everything on going for all-out attack against Portsmouth, Boro and Fulham, which is either brave or suicidal, but is probably the attitude that United's fans would most like to see their team adopt. If it goes wrong, however, you can expect a repeat of last season's renewal of this fixture, in which Pompey were three up in 11 minutes, and went on to win 4-1. It is plain, though, that Newcastle's defence has been poor for most of the season and until that issue has been addressed sufficiently, it won't matter how many international forwards Shearer can put on the field. For me, this match may well be memorable for defensive calamities and end 2-2 (18/1 with skybet), which would suit Portsmouth, but may be disastrous for their hosts.
OK, let's try to follow up last week's success with a £10 accumulator on Milton Keynes, Northampton, Ayr and Arsenal, which, if successful, would return £36.80 with Paddy Power. If you want to spice things up a little, try adding Wycombe to boost the potential return to £57.84.
Good luck!
Posted by Nick