May 14, 2009
So, the most protracted suicide attempt in history looks to be nearing total success as Hull have finally managed to work their way into the relegation zone for the first time this season. With a final day match against Man.United, they have just one more realistic chance to gain another three points, but with Newcastle having gained a vital confidence boost with Monday night's victory, would even that be enough?
Let's start examining the coming weekend's fixtures with the lunchtime kick-off:
1) Man.United v Arsenal: As I'm writing prior to United's visit to Wigan on Wednesday, it may be the case by the time you read this that they require just one point to clinch the title. They should get all three. Arsenal's improved form over recent weeks since the return of a number of their top performers from injury, has simply fallen apart, with a tame first leg and a disastrous second leg against Man.U. in the Champions League semi-final, followed by their heaviest home defeat since moving to the Emirates. They have also lost six of their last seven matches at Old Trafford in all competitions. Expect Arsene Wenger to undergo the ultimate embarrassment by having to watch United take the title in style.
2) Bolton v Hull: Bolton's inconsistent form this season has in fact been quite predictable from one point of view. Having lost at home to all of the top four, the visits of lowly Stoke, Newcastle, Portsmouth and Middlesbrough have yielded maximum points, so you have to fear for Hull's prospects of gaining any points from this match. However, with Wanderers having scored just one goal in their last four matches, and a disappointing failure to beat a poor Sunderland side last week, there does remain a slight hope for the visitors, even though it will take a determined performance of the sort that they haven't achieved at all in the second half of the season. It won't be pleasant to watch, but strange results sometimes occur when underperforming teams are faced with their last chance, so it's best to leave this one alone from a betting perspective.
3) Everton v West Ham: Despite the fact that West Ham still have a chance of qualifying for the Europa League, this fixture has the makings of the archetypal end of season kickabout, with little passion on display, and the players just going through the motions trying to avoid injury. I would be most surprised if there were many goals, as Everton have conceded just two in their last five matches, while the Hammers have scored only twice in their last five. If anybody was to win this, I would just favour Everton, but I don't expect them to be taking too many risks in going all out for the win, so it would be best to leave this one alone.
4) Middlesbrough v Aston Villa: Well that should be it. The only glimmer of hope left for Boro is that their remaining fixtures are marginally less demanding than those of their competitors, but it may be asking too much to expect that they will all of a sudden remember how to score goals. The last seven times this fixture has been played, the match has involved three or more goals, but Villa have had much the better of the results in the last three seasons, having registered victories of 3-0, 3-1 and 4-0. This isn't a Villa side brimming with confidence or desire at the moment, and with the added difficulty of working out how Boro's players will react to their defeat at Newcastle, this one is best left to qualified psychologists to work out.
5) Newcastle v Fulham: Seven wins all season, and yet due to the poor results of others, Newcastle now have the ideal platform to escape the drop. What had looked like a quite daunting final home match of the season against a side experiencing a fine year now looks eminently winnable. Once again, though, there are two possible trains of thought when trying to predict the result here, as Newcastle's players could either take confidence from Monday's result and regain the winning mentality that has evaded them for so long. Or, alternatively, they could become complacent, thinking that three points against Fulham is now a formality, while forgetting that they have to play according to their reputations, and not as they have for most of this season. An interesting battle lies ahead, but there remains the distinct possibility that Fulham could yet spoil the party.
6) Stoke v Wigan: Now that Stoke are safe, they have the perfect opportunity to let loose and put on a real display for their fans in their last home match of the season. Their visitors have turned into one of those sides that see Premiership survival as an excuse to stop trying for the rest of the season, and no wins in five with 13 goals conceded in that run (prior to Wednesday's match) are statistics that Steve Bruce must be most fustrated about. It may be the case that Stoke's players are just told to go and play open, attacking football, or they may just stick to the plan that has served them so well this season. Either way, I think they will win and win well.
7) Tottenham v Man.City: At last, the fixture that statistics nerds have been waiting for all season. That is due to the fact that the last four times this fixture has been played, the result has been 2-1 to Tottenham. On the other hand, though, there will be a different camp of nerds pointing out that Tottenham's last four home games have all ended as 1-0 home wins, so I'll stay out of that particular argument for now and just point out that 1-0 is available at 7/1 with sportingbet.com and 2-1 is 15/2 with the same firm.
8) West Brom v Liverpool: Whatever happened at Wigan on Wednesday and Old Trafford on Saturday lunchtime, I'm sure Liverpool will be looking to end the season with another couple of victories, even if there are no trophies for them to claim. They didn't waste any time putting West Ham to the sword last weekend, and they also extended their incredible high-scoring run to 21 goals in their last six matches. Despite West Brom still harbouring faint survival hopes, I can't see anything other than an away win here.
9) Chelsea v Blackburn: What a surprise it was to hear of death threats and conspiracy theories following Chelsea's latest attempt to find ever more inventive ways of departing the Champions League in their semi-final defeat to Barcelona. It will be most disappointing to more level-headed football fans if Didier Drogba and Michael Ballack are not handed lengthy bans for their behaviour, and personally I hope that both are offloaded abroad in the summer, not necessarily for their actions in that one match, but for their constant cheating and sniping at officials, which is both unnecessary and extremely tedious. Anyway, their side bounced back from the Champions League exit with a convincing thumping of Arsenal, and now that Blackburn are safe, they may be due for more of the same here. Last season's 0-0 draw at Stamford Bridge was preceded by 3-0, 4-2 and 4-0 tonkings, and I would be surprised if we didn't see a return to that sort of form.
10) Portsmouth v Sunderland: Sunderland have possibly done enough to escape the drop, but may still suffer if Hull manage to beat Bolton, so they will need to be alert to the fact that they can't relax even though their hard-earned point at the Reebok last week led to celebrations on the terraces. Neither side has impressed in front of goal recently, with Portsmouth not having scored in their last four, and Sunderland failing in their last three, but I would place rather more faith in Pompey's strikeforce when it comes to halting those runs, and a repeat of last season's 1-0 scoreline may be the safest call here.
Now that we are just left with Premiership and Scottish Premiership fixtures, it is difficult to come up with viable betting opportunities, but you could try combining Stoke, Liverpool and Chelsea in a £10 treble which, if all win their games, would return £41.84 at skybet.com.
Posted by Nick