Flutterama blog

May 21, 2009

English Premier League Gameweek 38 Preview

If, like me, you spent last Saturday afternoon in front of Jeff Stelling and his mates watching the Premiership matches develop, you would have enjoyed the latest instalment of an utterly enthralling relegation battle as Newcastle became the latest side to throw away a position of superiority, and set up a further afternoon of drama and intrigue this coming Sunday. Will Villa suddenly find winning form to relegate Newcastle? WIll Man.U. put a reserve side out and still beat Hull? Will Middlesbrough ever score another goal? Will Sunderland get overtaken by everybody on the finishing line? I can't wait.

Another enjoyable aspect of last weekend was the latest successful treble advised here, as three 2-0 wins for the selections advised provided a return of well over four times your stake. Readers of last week's column would also have noticed that the incredible run of 2-1 home wins for Tottenham over Man.City that I pointed out was extended to five courtesy of Robbie Keane's late penalty, so I hope you took note of the stats and got some of the 15/2 that was available. I'll have one last go before we head into a blank and bleak summer without any major football, but in the meantime, here's a look at the final day's fixtures:

1) Arsenal v Stoke: Nothing much at stake here, except for a great deal of pride as Arsenal look to avoid the embarrassment of Stoke doing the double over them this season. The Gunners have only won two out of their last eight matches in all competitions and have suffered criticism from all quarters in recent weeks. While some of that flak may well have been justified, they will need to win this match convincingly to allay some of their fans' concerns over the direction of the club. However, when you consider that only Man.United have put Stoke firmly in their place this season, Arsenal may well have to make do with a narrow victory, if at all.

2) Aston Villa v Newcastle: So, of the two options I put forward last week as possibilities for the direction of Newcastle's players' mentality following their victory over Middlesbrough, they decided to go for the self-congratulatory "How brilliant are we?? We've beaten a side as impressive as Middlesbrough!!" school of thought, and quickly reverted to type, wasting numerous chances against Fulham, and allowing Hull to escape the bottom three with just one game left. Villa themselves wasted some glorious opportunities to relegate Middlesbrough on Saturday and have now recorded just one win in fifteen matches in League and Cup. However, I see no reason at all to imagine that Newcastle will be the side suddenly rediscovering the ability to win, and while a repeat of last season's 4-1 scoreline may be a bit fanciful, a repeat of the home win is certainly not.

3) Blackburn v West Brom: With this as their last fixture, it was always going to be a longshot for Rovers to get relegated this season, but they will still be pleased to have secured safety with a couple of weeks to spare. Their visitors, meanwhile, make a speedy return to the Championship having amassed more friends than points, mainly amongst rivals who have been happy to achieve simple victories against a side that doesn't know how to dig in and hold Premiership teams at bay in the manner achieved by Stoke to great effect. In their last seven matches, Blackburn have lost all of the away fixtures and won all of those at home. I expect that to continue here, extending West Brom's winless run at Ewood Park to eighteen years.

4) Fulham v Everton: Who would have thought at the start of the season that Fulham would need just a point from this match to qualify for Europe? Hats off to Roy Hodgson, though. It may not always have been thrilling to watch, but to achieve a seventh place finish with the players he has to choose from has been a magnificent performance, and given the fact that Everton have lost their last nine visits to Fulham, without even scoring in the last four, it may not be over yet. Everton's last victory at Craven Cottage came while most of England was still drunk from World Cup-winning post-match celebrations, and if you're looking for a correct score to have a little flutter on, how about taking heed of the fact that the last three renewals of this fixture have ended 1-0 to Fulham? A fourth in a row would pay out at 6/1 with bet365 or sportingbet.com.

5) Hull v Man.United: Let the conspiracy theories commence. If you were Alex Ferguson (I know, I know, it's not a pleasant thought, but humour me for a moment), would you play a full strength side here, knowing that you had already won the title and faced a Champions League final a few days later? Of course you wouldn't, and before they start moaning, neither would Ricky Sbragia, Alan Shearer or Gareth Southgate. Even with a second string side, though, United are certainly capable of taking the points here and possibly sending Hull down. This really is a match that most neutrals would want to watch and enjoy, as it promises to be a pulsating afternoon's entertainment at the KC. As for having a bet, forget it, as there are far too many imponderables to take into account, but I just can't help thinking back to 2000 when Bradford needed a win over Liverpool in their final match to stay up, and just managed it by a 1-0 scoreline. I'm sure Phil Brown is already rummaging around to find a video of that performance to show his players.

6) Liverpool v Tottenham: Oh well. A gallant effort by Liverpool for most of the season ended in failure, but at least they ran the eventual champions close for the first time in some years and have created a solid platform to build on next season. It's perhaps just as well that they don't need to win this one any more though, as I'm certainly not convinced that they will. It may be 16 years since Tottenham last won a League match at Anfield, but they have achieved a few draws in that time including last season's renewal. Robbie Keane in particular will be, well, keen (sorry) to make a point to Rafa Benitez by repeating his two-goal performance from last year, and I see no reason why Spurs can't achieve a draw to round off an impressive recovery from their disastrous start.

7) Man.City v Bolton: Still no draws at home for Man.City this season, and even though it is an extreme rarity as I pointed out a few weeks ago for such a statistic to last a whole season, I can't see them drawing this one either. In fact, there hasn't been a draw in this fixture since 1980. City ended a run of three home defeats to Bolton (not having scored a single goal in that period) with a resounding 4-2 win last season, and I would imagine that they will end their turbulent year on an optimistic note with another convincing win on Sunday.

8) Sunderland v Chelsea: I know Sunderland have a much greater need for the points here, but they are in shocking form, so for Paddy Power and bet365 to be offering 11/10 against Chelsea winning this match is quite incredible. Had the match been played three or four weeks ago, the price would have been more like 4/7. Chelsea are not the sort of team to let up just because they have the FA Cup final to play next week, and their superiority over Sunderland in every department is such that the price on offer is simply too good to resist. I'd be surprised if it lasts. Chelsea's last three visits to the Stadium of Light have yielded three narrow victories, and I expect that run to be extended on Sunday with possibly devastating consequences for Sunderland.

9) West Ham v Middlesbrough: Both sides will have to make do without important players here, as James Tomkins is suspended for West Ham, while Stewart Downing's injury probably means he has played his last game for Boro. That really leaves Boro with no hope of a final day miracle as they have created few enough chances this season even when Downing has been fit. He was also the outstanding player in his side's two FA Cup matches with West Ham in January, scoring once in each match to put the Hammers out, and his clueless teammates look likely to finish their Championship mission with aplomb by recording their fifteenth (yes, fifteenth) away defeat of the season.

10) Wigan v Portsmouth: Possibly the most inconsequential match of the season, but Pompey at least appear to be trying to end the season on a high note, whereas their hosts have taken just one point from their last seven matches. Portsmouth have also won two of their three Premiership visits to the JJB, or the DW, or whatever it's called now, so I would be quite confident that they can grab the points here to overtake Wigan in the final table.

OK, here we go with one final bet before a summer of having to gamble on cricket, netball or the weather. How about combining Blackburn, Man.City and Chelsea in a £10 treble which would return £67.38 with bet365 if all of them win their matches.

Good luck!
Posted by Nick