Flutterama blog

May 7, 2009

English Premier League Gameweek 36 Preview

So, not much sign of any fighting spirit in the battle to avoid relegation as the sides who currently find themsleves forming the bottom eight of the Premiership managed to gain no points between them whatsoever over the weekend, and it is now looking more and more likely that an embarrassingly low number of points could be required to survive this season. There are a couple of key fixtures at the bottom taking place this coming weekend, but we start with two sides whose safety could well be confirmed after this round of matches:

1) Blackburn v Portsmouth: Pompey continued their recent run of losing only to the top four with a predictable defeat at home to Arsenal last time out, but this match should be more to their liking as Rovers have been far from convincing in their slow climb away from danger. Depending on their activities in the transfer market during the summer, Blackburn may also be a decent bet for relegation next season as I don't think they currently have the manager or playing staff to avoid a repeat of this season's poor performances next time around. Anyway, with both sides tantalisingly close to confirming their survival, the teams may achieve the first draw in this fixture since it was played in the Championship in 2000.

2) Bolton v Sunderland: Sunderland's fans have made no secret of their opinions on the performances of their side in recent weeks, but their reaction at the end of many of their matches in the last month or so hasn't shown any signs of sparking their players into life whatsoever. Six defeats in their last seven matches could well become seven in eight here as the Black Cats have also failed to even score in their last five away matches. Their last two trips to the Reebok have ended 2-0 to Bolton, and it would be no surprise to see a repeat of that here, allowing Bolton to celebrate survival in front of their own fans.

3) Everton v Tottenham: I mentioned last week that Everton's home defeat to Man.City had a lot more to do with Tim Cahill's absence for the first hour of the game rather than their players having one eye on the FA Cup Final, and so it proved as Cahill's return to the starting line-up helped his team to a comfortable victory at Sunderland on Sunday. Everton will need him to be fit and on form for this one though, as Spurs have a tremendous recent record at Goodison, with three victories from their last four visits, and only one defeat in their last eleven visits. With both sides now showing the sort of form their fans expect from them, this is a very tricky one to call, and none of the three possible outcomes would be a surprise at all.

4) Fulham v Aston Villa: Villa face just as testing a prospect as their rivals for fifth place here. Despite gaining their first win for nearly three months on Monday, they remain a nervous looking side, and very nearly allowed Hull to snatch a late equaliser at Villa Park. As Fulham have recorded ten victories at home this season, and Villa ten away, this looks another impossible match to call, however, there should be  plenty of entertainment on offer as neither side has failed to score in this fixture on the last six occasions it has been played, and I fully expect an open, end-to-end encounter on Saturday.

5) Hull v Stoke:  One win in twenty matches. Oh dear. In any normal season, Hull would already have been relegated, but their impressive performances in the first three months of the season have given them a lifeline they seem reluctant to accept. The last four matches between these two have ended 1-1, but when just one more victory may be enough to save Hull, a repeat of that scoreline may prove to be a major blow to their prospects. At least they showed some battling characteristics late on at Villa on Monday, which is more than you can say for most of their relegation rivals, and I can't see them losing here, particularly as Stoke may have started to dream of their second Premiership season already. Whether or not they can gain the elusive three points is another matter entirely.

6) West Brom v Wigan: Useless stat of the week - Neither side has ever failed to score in this fixture. I'm struggling to find anything else to say about this match, other than West Brom have a real chance now of avoiding last place, even though relegation is pretty much a certainty. I wasn't entirley convinced by their 3-0 win over Sunderland in their last home match, as their visitors were so poor, but Wigan's performances have also left a bit to be desired in recent weeks, and they appear to be aimlessly drifting downwards with three defeats and a 0-0 draw in their last four matches. Thanks to the stat of the week, I expect goals, but whether either side can take the three points is anybody's guess.

7) West Ham v Liverpool: Something has to give here. West Ham's recent defensive strength has resulted in them not having conceded more than one goal in any of their last nine matches. Meanwhile, Liverpool have scored an unbelievable 18 goals in their last five matches, and will be fired up to regain top spot, albeit temporarily, from Man.United, who play on Sunday. Last season's defeat at Upton Park followed on from three consecutive victories in this fixture, and I just feel they may have too much going forward for the Hammers, particularly with Gerrard linking up the play effectively once again. One of the two proud records has to go sometime, and I think it may well be West Ham's.

8) Man.U. v Man.C.: Three or four weeks ago, this would have been a certain home win, but City have finally started to display a little of what was initially expected with the arrivals of Robinho, Wright-Phillips, Bellamy et al. I'm sure you will also remember City's fine win at Old Trafford last season, and when you consider that they have only lost once on their last four visits, this may be a bit more competitive than Alex Ferguson would like. At least United will have their Champions League semi-final out of the way by the time this match comes around, and can therefore field a full strength line-up. I think they will need to.

9) Arsenal v Chelsea: This will be the fifth match in their last seven that has pitted Arsenal against one of the top four, so their fans have certainly had plenty of top class football to watch in recent weeks, and there is still another League visit to Man.United to come. Third place may be an unlikely prospect for the Gunners, but victory here would at least provide real hope. Unfortunately for them, Chelsea look in no mood to allow that to happen, and I have been most impressed with how their performances have improved under Guus Hiddink. The question is why certain players seemed unwilling to display their full potential under the previous manager, and that fact is quite a shameful slur on Didier Drogba in particular. As usual, this match will be difficult to call, and at the time of writing we also have the unknown factor of the Champions League semi-finals to take into account, so it's probably wisest to watch and enjoy rather than have a bet here.

10) Newcastle v Middlesbrough: Here we are. The match that both managers will have identified as their most realistic chance of climbing out of the bottom three. Unfortunately, both sides have been so inept in front of goal recently, a disappointing 0-0 scrap may be the most likely outcome. Boro have failed to score in their last three matches, while Newcastle have scored just once in their last five. Before checking recent results of this fixture, I was expecting to see a strong home bias, but the last four renewals have actually all ended level. Both sides will obviously be going all out for the win that will give them some hope, but I can't help feeling that their misfiring forwards will let them down again, and no goalscorer is an attractive 9/1 shot with bet365.

Just a treble for you this week, but it remains attractively priced nevertheless. A successful £10 treble on Bolton, Liverpool and Dunfermline would return £57.62 with bet365.com.

Good luck!

Posted by Nick