Flutterama blog

August 26, 2009

English Premier League Gameweek 4 Preview

Two weeks into the season, the traditional London v Manchester battle for the Premiership is already well under way, but with one or two unfamiliar names included, as Spurs lead the early running, and Man.City find themselves in an encouraging fifth position with two wins out of two. As Aston Villa found out to their cost last season, though, keeping pace with the perennial big boys requires a great deal of stamina together with a squad big enough to cope with suspensions and injuries, so it will be interesting to see how long the challenges of the new upstarts remain potent.


The Premiership throws up some very finely balanced fixtures to work out this week, but here is a little bit of information that may help you on your way:


1) Chelsea v Burnley: Owen Coyle’s tactics for this match should be obvious. Whenever a Chelsea player gets in the box, bring him down. Burnley’s goal has been living a charmed life when faced with opposition penalties so far this season, and on their previous visit to Stamford Bridge in the Carling Cup last season, it was a penalty shoot-out that took the Clarets through following a superb effort to gain a 1-1 draw. Of all of the title favourites, Chelsea are probably best placed to give Burnley a swift reminder of how tough the Premiership is, and they have certainly looked a most efficient, well-drilled outfit in gaining maximum points from their first three fixtures. However, with very short odds on offer, and the passionate nature of Burnley’s players and fans so far, I wouldn’t want to get involved with this match financially.


2) Blackburn v West Ham: You had to feel sorry for Carlton Cole after West Ham’s defeat to Tottenham on Sunday, as his inexplicable back pass that led to Tottenham’s equalizer cancelled out his sensational opening goal. I get the feeling that the Hammers are heading for a similar season to last year, but Rovers on the other hand have some serious squad strengthening ahead of them if they are not to find themselves in a relegation scrap this season, particularly now that Stephen Warnock is leaving for Villa. They were rather unfortunate not to take anything from their trip to Sunderland last weekend, but in typical Allardyce fashion, the post-match press interviews blamed everybody and everything apart from the Blackburn players and manager. This is also a fixture that West Ham have enjoyed in recent years, with two wins and a draw in their last three visits, and Cole in particular will be keen to make up for Sunday’s calamity. As long as the extremely disturbing incident involving Calum Davenport doesn’t prey on their minds too much, I think West Ham can prolong Blackburn’s wait for their first win.


3) Bolton v Liverpool: Whoever came up with the idea of selling Liverpool’s second best midfielder and replacing him with an untried youngster who can’t play until October at the earliest needs to have their head examined. Two defeats in their opening three games equals the total for the whole of last season, and a title challenge looks a forlorn hope already. However, the days of the Reebok holding great fear for the division’s top sides are now a distant memory, and Bolton have lost seven of the last eight visits from Man.United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal. Odds of 8/1 against Gary Megson becoming the next Premiership manager to lose his job are starting to look very attractive, and defeat here would certainly see those odds tumble.


4) Stoke v Sunderland: Much was made of the importance of Stoke’s home form last season, and judging by the lack of goals in their two away matches so far, the same may apply this time around. On Saturday, they welcome a Sunderland side who seem to have a renewed spirit about them, and find themselves with six points from nine, mainly due to the impressive strike force that they now have at their disposal. This fixture hasn’t produced a draw since 1984, which is in keeping with the Premiership as a whole this season, where there has still only been one draw in the 26 matches played. Could it be time for that run to end?


5) Tottenham v Birmingham: Alex McLeish’s persistent attempt to deter Birmingham fans from watching their side anymore continues to gather pace, but it will take an outstanding effort to keep a revitalised Spurs side at bay on Saturday. Jermain Defoe in particular has been in scintillating early season form, but it may well need an early breakthrough if Spurs are to overcome a tightly knit and, dare I say it, tedious Birmingham side. City’s home games so far have attracted only two-thirds of the stadium’s capacity when you would imagine that the thrill of promotion would have encouraged many more to attend, but with their team showing such little ambition in their play, the drop in numbers is entirely understandable. As for this match, the only fact that puts me off predicting a heavy home win is that in similar circumstances during City’s last Premiership adventure, they actually managed to steal the points with a last minute winner, so bear that in mind before placing your bets.


6) Wolves v Hull: Well, what a difference Hull’s new strikeforce made! They were only on the pitch together for 26 minutes, but Jozy Altidore and Kamel Ghilas formed such a lively partnership that Bolton couldn’t cope with their movement and instinctive understanding last Saturday. That will need to continue though, as a better side than Bolton would have taken two or three of the excellent chances at the other end, and consigned Hull to a third consecutive defeat. Still, a visit to Molineux shouldn’t hold much fear for the Tigers, as Wolves’s solitary win so far, at Wigan, required an entirely different nature of performance and organization to the one required here. I really don’t think it will take Kevin Doyle too long to get his season up and running now that he has returned from injury, so we may well end up with a quite entertaining score draw on Saturday.


7) Man.United v Arsenal: Ten goals in two games is the ideal preparation for Arsenal’s biggest test of the season so far on a ground where they have failed to score on seven of their previous nine visits in League and Cup. You may remember last season’s encounter in the Champions League at Old Trafford where Arsenal failed to really get going at all, but now that the disruptive influence of Emanuel Adebayor has departed, I’m sure we will see a far more competitive encounter on Saturday evening. Indeed, now that Michael Owen has got off the mark for United, there are numerous players on either side who are capable of turning this encounter into an absolute classic. I am however, still slightly concerned that the onus will be placed on Wayne Rooney far too often this season while Arsenal seem to have a greater spread of individuals who can turn a game in an instant, while William Gallas has generously contributed three goals from defence via his face, arse and head. It will be worth checking on whether Cesc Fabregas is fit to play a part here, but I’m sure we will witness an open, entertaining encounter that may well end all square.


8) Portsmouth v Man.City: Portsmouth haven’t lost this fixture since 2004. They will on Sunday, though.


9) Everton v Wigan: Now that the Joleon Lescott saga has reached the only conclusion it was ever likely to, Everton can concentrate on getting their season up and running following their embarrassing opening day performance, and possibly even more embarrassing effort last week at Burnley. Just five months ago, Wigan were comfortably trounced 4-0 in this fixture, and they will need to get last Saturday’s scoreline out of their minds quickly if they are to avoid a repeat. Their performance against Man.U. certainly didn’t warrant such a heavy defeat, but their collapse, together with United’s defeat at Burnley a few days previously, just goes to show how important the first goal in a match can be psychologically. While Wigan seem set for another season of inconsistent displays, we really need to wait until Everton show signs of emerging from their early malaise before backing them with any confidence, so this match is best left alone.


10) Aston Villa v Fulham: While Villa will be jubilant at their impressive 3-1 victory at Anfield on Monday, it is worth noting that Liverpool had one or two glorious chances to take the lead early on which, had they been taken, could have given an entirely different perspective to the match. However, the first win of the season is vital for confidence within any side, and this should now be a much more competitive fixture as a result. In the eight Premiership meetings between these two at Villa Park, Fulham have only managed a paltry three goals, but have still managed to secure three draws in their last four attempts. I fully expect them to use their usual tactics of defending in numbers and trying to nick a goal on the break, so as usual in this type of match, much will depend on whether Villa can break them down early on. With Andy Johnson missing, Fulham’s chances of a breakaway goal are clearly diminished, and I’m also not convinced that new signing Jonathan Greening has the quality needed for a Premiership player, so if this doesn’t end 0-0, a home win would be the call.


No bulletin next week as the Premiership takes an international break, or the following week as I take an international break, but I’ll be back after that with a preview of the 19th September fixtures for you. In the meantime, I’ll leave you with a suggestion to combine Liverpool, Notts.County, Dagenham & Redbridge and Rangers in a £10 accumulator, which would return £73.33 with skybet.com if all four teams won their games.


Good luck!
Posted by Nick