Flutterama blog

September 17, 2009

English Premier League Gameweek 6 Preview

Well, so much for the theory that players would return jaded from their international committments around the world. The eight Premiership matches played last Saturday averaged exactly four goals per game and there was no shortage of controversy, spectacular goals and pulsating action. By the time you read this, Emanuel Adebayor may have found out what action the FA intend to take over his puerile and reckless actions against Arsenal on Saturday, and with the top four scheduled to meet this weekend, you can bet that we will witness more of the same, but let's start the preview of the coming weekend's fixtures with the lunchtime kick-off at Turf Moor:

1) Burnley v Sunderland: Now that Burnley's nightmare run of opening fixtures has come to an end with a most creditable six points on the board, they can concentrate on some far more presentable opportunities to climb the table. The problem for them here, though, is that Sunderland have strengthened to good effect during the summer and have a particularly potent strikeforce that was their downfall for much of last season. They also have a good record at Turf Moor, not having lost on any of their last eight visits, so they should head into this match confident of becoming the first side to avoid defeat at "Fortress" Burnley this season. Personally, I think that confidence will be justified.

2) Arsenal v Wigan: Considering Arsenal spent much of last season dominating opponents but failing to put them to the sword, I am quite amazed that the same problem has reappeared this time around. Two visits to Manchester should have yielded six points judging by the balance of play in each match, but two alarming collapses have ensued rather than the sort of overwhelming result the Gunners inflicted on Everton in their previous away match. The goal-scoring return of the talented Thomas Rosicky from a lengthy spell out injured should help Arsenal in the weeks to come, but there obviously remains a mental issue with the players for Arsene Wenger to deal with as soon as possible. Wigan are just the sort of stubborn side to take advantage if Arsenal can't rediscover their killer instinct in time for this match, as even though they have lost on all of their previous visits, the Gunners have struggled to put them away convincingly at times, particularly in last season's 1-0 win. Following a trip to Belgium in midweek, this may not be a match in which to accept short odds against Arsenal, even though they have the potential to run riot if things go their way.

3) Aston Villa v Portsmouth: Despite many of their transfer window purchases being second string players from other Premiership clubs, I thought a home match against Bolton would provide the perfect opportunity for Pompey to get off the mark last Saturday, but they remain pointless and may well soon be managerless. I'm sure I'm not alone in having a feeling that their new owner, while he may have ample funds, has the air of an egotistical buffoon of Michael Knighton proportions about him, and it wouldn't take many more defeats for the fans to take against him in no uncertain terms. Mike Ashley could have told him that sitting amongst the fans wearing the team's colours can only ingratiate you so far with the supporters before favourable results are required, so a long and unsuccessful winter may yet face Portsmouth. It may also be a long and unsuccessful 90 minutes for them at Villa Park on Saturday as their hosts have recovered well from an opening day stutter to win their following three matches. On only one of the last five renewals of this fixture have Villa failed to keep a clean sheet, and while I think Pompey could grab a goal this time around, I still think a defeat will result.

4) Bolton v Stoke: In a repeat of their opening fixture from last season, Stoke travel to Bolton knowing that they haven't won there since 1990, and their first few efforts away from home this season have given no reason to believe that they will manage a win on Saturday. A tremendous backs-to-the-wall performance against Chelsea last week so nearly provided the Potters with a valuable point, but the close result only masked how utterly dominant their visitors were over the 154 minutes that appeared to have been played. Last Saturday's victory at Fratton Park will have been vital for the confidence of Bolton's previously struggling side, and if they get off to a good start here, they may well be able to repeat last season's 3-1 victory.

5) Hull v Birmingham: Early days I know, but these two look set for a long struggle this season as better equipped and (in Birmingham's case) more adventurous sides surround them towards the foot of the table. I know I keep going on about it, but Birmingham's paltry two goals already has them at the bottom of the goals scored list, and their manager's unwillingness to take any risks whatsoever, even when faced with poor opposition at home will undoubtedly ensure a tedious battle for survival. They will be looking for a 1-0 win here, so Hull would be well advised to go all out for the lead in the opening exchanges, thereby forcing Birmingham out of their shell. Whether Hull have the personnel to take the game to the visitors, though, is open to question, and the twelve goals the Tigers have conceded in their first five League matches is not surprisingly the highest total in the Premiership. So, a team that refuses to attack against a team that can't defend. Somebody will win it 1-0.

6) West Ham v Liverpool: I'm not quite sure how West Ham managed to draw a blank at Wigan last week, but they find themselves precariously positioned as a result and will face a far more potent threat than Wigan here. Liverpool may already have suffered two defeats, but their goalscoring has been quite exceptional, with thirteen goals registered in their first five League fixtures. A 3-0 victory at Upton Park last season extended their run to four victories from their last five visits, and if they can hone their shooting skills even further against Debreceni in the Champions League on Wednesday, I fear that the Hammers' defence may struggle to cope.

7) Man.U. v Man.C.: The second big test of City's Champions League ambitions comes on Sunday at a ground where City's win in 2008 had given me the impression that they didn't have too bad a record. I was wrong (again). In fact, that win was their only success in their last 29 visits in League and Cup, but they could hardly be heading into this match in better spirits following their 100% start to the season. Emanuel Adebayor will also be looking forward to the match (assuming any FA action doesn't take effect in time for him to miss out) as he scored on two of his last three League visits to Old Trafford with Arsenal, and will again be relied upon for City's goals if Robinho and Tevez miss out. Even with City's rewarding start to the season, I feel that this may be a step too far for them to take without a full strength side, and a draw may be the best they can hope for, particularly with Wayne Rooney experiencing such a fruitful spell at present.

8) Wolves v Fulham: In amongst the clashes between the top four comes this. Two sides who have managed just three League goals each, and in Fulham's case, two of those have come from wicked deflections. The sides haven't met for five years, but Fulham's last victory at Molineux came when their current strikers were just four years old. Prior to this fixture, Fulham also face a tricky trip to Bulgaria in the Europa League, which may well have an effect, but the return of Andy Johnson from injury certainly proved a boost prior to last Sunday's win over Everton. Wolves have struggled following the injury sustained by Sylvan Ebanks-Blake in their opening match of the season, but it was encouraging to note that Stefan Maierhoffer scored on his debut last Saturday, and he may well be handed a starting place to see if he can continue that form. A few imponderables with this one, then, but I'll plump for a 1-1 draw with Fulham's goal to be deflected in off the referee’s backside.

9) Everton v Blackburn: This match was a rare high point for Paul Ince in his short time in charge at Ewood Park, as a 3-2 victory on the opening day of last season gave false hope of a challenge towards the top of the table for Rovers' fans. This time around, both clubs have had poor starts to the campaign, with only one win and four goals scored each. Everton's recent signings, however, do give me the belief that they will eventually climb the table, but this remains a tricky fixture to call between two unpredictable sides. Even looking at the fixture's history doesn't really help as the last twelve League meetings at Goodison Park have resulted in five home wins, five away wins and two draws. Anybody's guess.

10) Chelsea v Tottenham:  An undoubtedly fiery encounter to round off the weekend's entertainment (or start it if you spent Saturday afternoon at Bolton v Stoke). Just as against Hull on the opening day, Chelsea's relentless and irresistible pounding of a stubborn defence paid dividends at about 6:15 pm last Saturday at Stoke, with Florent Malouda's very late strike maintaining their 100% start to the season. Tottenham's 100% start didn't last as long, but there was no shame in their 3-1 defeat to Man.U. last time out, and had Peter Crouch in particular not spurned the chances that came his way, there may well have been more reward for his team. Stamford Bridge has not been a rewarding venue for Spurs in recent years, though, and I'm sure you're very familiar with the statistic that they haven't won there since 1990. With Jermain Defoe continuing in impressive form since his return to Tottenham, I fancy he may find the scoresheet, but I doubt whether it will be enough to stop Chelsea making it six in a row.

If you want to have a bet this weekend, how about combining Bristol City, Newcastle and Raith Rovers in a £10 treble that would return £49.50 with Paddy Power if successful. As I’m writing this before the midweek fixtures, you may find better odds later in the week.

Good luck!
Posted by Nick