Flutterama blog

January 14, 2010

English Premier League Gameweek 22 Preview

I suppose it would have been more appropriate for Michael Fish to have written this week’s column, but at least it looks as though slightly milder temperatures this week may allow a larger proportion of the coming weekend’s fixtures to go ahead than last weekend’s shoddy efforts. My sympathies lie with cash-strapped clubs like Rotherham and Darlington, who haven’t played at all since 12th December due to frozen pitches, and it was quite galling to hear of the lengthy list of postponements involving clubs who have undersoil heating installed. The official line is that the matches in question were postponed with the safety of spectators in mind. I would love to know who was responsible for these decisions, given that the pavements surrounding two grounds I drove past on Saturday were completely clear of snow and ice. What exactly are they afraid of? I also saw TV pictures filmed on Sunday around West Ham’s ground. Once again, there was no sign of any snow or ice, so on what basis are these decisions being made and by whom? If fans of Exeter City were able to make the arduous journey across the width of England to attend their side’s match at Norwich, surely Portsmouth fans for example could have been given the opportunity of travelling the relatively short distance to London for their match with Fulham, rather than now having to make the journey during a midweek rush hour. I’m sure you remember the days when snow-bound pitches were deemed playable just by way of the groundstaff clearing the snow from a couple of feet around each of the line markings, and play then continuing with an orange ball on a white pitch. I’m not suggesting that is a situation we need to return to, but things have progressed too far in the other direction, and as usual, it is the fans who suffer.

I haven’t a clue how many of the following matches will take place, but here’s some information that may help you along with your predictions:

1) Stoke v Liverpool: A fortunate ricochet in injury time gave Liverpool victory in their last League match, but they remain far from convincing, and this is precisely the sort of fixture in which they may face further embarrassment. Neither side is scoring many goals at present, so a repeat of last season’s two 0-0 draws between the sides may well be on the cards, and indeed, Stoke have only managed to score against Liverpool in one of the last five encounters in the Potteries in League and Cup. If they can keep things tight in the face of Fernando Torres, odds of 10/1 for no goalscorer at Coral or William Hill may be quite rewarding.

2) Chelsea v Sunderland: Sunderland have chosen the right time to start banging in the goals again, and with Kenwyne Jones looking to secure a move to a Champions League side in the transfer window, this match should provide the perfect stage for him. It will bloody need to. Sunderland have been beaten to nil in their last five visits to Stamford Bridge, and for Chelsea fans worried about the absence of Didier Drogba, the advice is simple. Don’t. Last season, he stayed on the bench for over an hour in this fixture. By the time he was brought on, Chelsea were 5-0 up. Having said that, though, I have no doubt that the current Sunderland side will provide a far sterner test for their slightly underperforming hosts, just as they did at Old Trafford earlier this season, and if this does end up as a home win, I fancy it will just be by the odd goal.

3) Man.U. v Burnley: I’m not sure who will be looking after Burnley for this match, as Owen Coyle’s departure was swiftly followed by his replacement, Steve Davis, and then by his replacement’s replacement, Phil Hughes. Maybe the bloke who prances around the pitch at Turf Moor in the bee suit will be eagerly awaiting his turn to be offered the job, as it certainly wouldn’t make much difference to the outcome of this match. Even a recently disappointing United side should be able to take care of a team with nine defeats and 31 goals conceded in ten away matches so far.

4) Portsmouth v Birmingham: A match that Pompey fans would have viewed a few weeks back as a golden chance to pick up three points now looks like a banker away victory. City’s fine unbeaten run continued against Man.U. last Saturday, and possibly just as impressive is that the last nine matches of that run have featured exactly the same starting line-up. A word of caution for Alex McLeish, though. Many times before, we have witnessed a side in fine form through hard graft and teamwork being disrupted by the arrival of a new face from abroad, so Blues fans will be hoping that Michel will fit in seamlessly when he finally completes his move from Sporting Gijon. I remain dubious. As for this match, though, Pompey’s strikers remain in inconsistent form, so it may just take one goal to beat them. If it does, I can’t think of a side you can rely on more than Birmingham to register a 1-0 win (7/1 with stanjames.com and Coral).

5) Tottenham v Hull: You may remember that this fixture was one of the “welcome to Hull” matches from last season when the upstarts fresh from the Championship turned over their hosts 1-0 to cause yet more embarrassment to an established Premier League side. That won’t happen again. Convincing home win.

6) Wolves v Wigan: Another one of those “six-pointers” that seem to be cropping up with alarming regularity, and something has to give here, as no side has scored fewer than Wolves’ nine goals at home, while no side has conceded more than Wigan’s 31 goals away. Wigan will be looking for revenge for becoming the first victims of the Premier League newcomers this season, but as usual, form guides don’t seem to apply to Wigan, so it is a mystery as to how this game will pan out. Let’s just hope it gets postponed so we can leave this match out of our calculations.

7) Everton v Man.City: Roberto Mancini must think this Premier League lark is a piece of cake. Four consecutive wins with just one goal conceded is impressive stuff, but Saturday’s late kick-off will undoubtedly provide him with his toughest test so far. Last season’s 2-1 win in this fixture was City’s first in 13 attempts, and Everton benefited from the return of one or two vital players from injury in their impressive performance at Arsenal last Saturday. In fact, Everton’s improved form recently has seen them rack up seven unbeaten domestic matches, so this match really is tricky to call, particularly when you note that Everton’s home form exactly matches City’s away form. There’s only one thing for it then, and that is sitting on the fence with a prediction of a score draw.

8) Aston Villa v West Ham: Still no win away from home for West Ham since the opening day of the season, and to be honest it is very difficult to see that run ending here as Villa have still conceded just seven times at home in the League this season. The Hammers do at least have a record of keeping things relatively tight at Villa Park, having restricted Villa to one goal on each of their last four visits, but things have been even tighter at the other end, where Villa have only conceded once on West Ham’s last three visits. I’m confusing myself more than a little now with who has conceded what to whom and how often, but one thing is a bit clearer. West Ham will probably need to score at least twice to win this game, and I’m not sure they are capable of that feat at present.

9) Blackburn v Fulham: Another poor performance from Blackburn on Monday leaves them just three points from the drop zone, and memories will still be fresh of their 3-0 thumping at Craven Cottage in November as they welcome Fulham to Ewood Park. Earlier in the season, it looked as though Blackburn’s home form was going to be their saviour, but even that has fallen away in recent weeks, and they have failed to win any of their last five home matches in League and Cup (please note this is being written prior to their League Cup semi-final). Fulham’s last away match saw a shocking first half performance to go 3-0 down at Stoke before a stirring comeback nearly allowed them to gain an unlikely point. I can’t really see them facing the same of sort of onslaught from Rovers’ ineffective strikers, but neither can I see them adding to their solitary away win, which was gained way back on the opening day of the season, so that leaves me with the option of another low scoring draw that will ultimately be more satisfactory for the visitors.

10) Bolton v Arsenal: These sides are yet to play each other this season due to various postponements, but the match will provide a stiff test for Owen Coyle in his first match in charge at the Reebok. This fixture doesn’t hold the same fear for Arsenal as it used to during the Allardyce days, when they consistently allowed Bolton to bully their way to the points. The last three visits in League and Cup, on the other hand, have ended in victories with the Gunners scoring three times on each occasion, so the mental block certainly appears to have been overcome. What we can’t quantify in advance, though, is the boost that a new manager will bring to the hosts, and also to the Bolton fans, who have got exactly what they asked for, and will be looking for instant returns. So, a tricky one to round off the weekend’s entertainment with (assuming the snow hasn’t rounded it off earlier), and one that should be left well alone from a betting perspective.

Once again, I’m not sure how many of the selections this week will beat the weather, but if these matches go ahead, a successful £10 accumulator on Man.U., Spurs, Swindon, Celtic and Stranraer would return £54.87 with Paddy Power.

Good Luck! 
Posted by Nick