Flutterama blog

January 7, 2010

English Premier League Gameweek 21 Preview

I never thought I’d say this, but thank heavens for Leeds United. I can’t remember an FA Cup third round Saturday so completely bereft of upsets and tales of struggling lower league sides humbling mightier opponents, but this season, we had to wait until Sunday afternoon for the only giant-killing act of the round so far, as Leeds deservedly triumphed over a strong Man.United side. It was also a joy to watch Alex Ferguson having to congratulate Leeds through gritted teeth before once again moaning about the fact that only five minutes of added time had been played. As happens regularly, the officials were proved correct and Ferguson simply left himself open to yet more ridicule. He is obviously completely oblivious to the fact that nobody takes his rants seriously anymore, and I feel sorry for those that will have to look after him in his retirement home and spend all day listening to his incoherent ramblings about referees and constant checking of his watch.

Anyway, back to Premier League action this weekend, and the action starts at lunchtime at the KC. Please note that this column was written prior to the midweek fixtures at Stoke and Arsenal:

1) Hull v Chelsea: As Chelsea wave goodbye to Drogba, Kalou and Essien for a few weeks, it is time for the players left behind to live up to Carlo Ancelotti’s belief that their reserve players are more than capable of coping with the responsibility of replacing the departed Africans. I share Ancelotti’s belief, and on a ground where they have scored 6, 4 and 3 on their last three visits, a convincing away win has to be the call despite one or two below par performances in recent weeks that have allowed Arsenal and Man.U. to keep right up with the Blues.

2) Arsenal v Everton: Everton’s performances have certainly improved over the past few weeks, and one or two key players are on the verge of returning to the fray, but they have an enormous task on their hands as they try to improve a quite shocking record at Arsenal. In their last fourteen visits in League and Cup, they have racked up thirteen defeats and one draw, and many of those defeats have been resounding three or four goal tonkings, with even a 7-0 demolition thrown in for good measure. I should also remind you of the way Arsenal toyed with Everton at Goodison Park on the opening day of the season, when they ran out 6-1 winners. Even if Cesc Fabregas has not recovered from his hamstring strain in time to play in this match, Arsenal’s performance in the last twenty five minutes of their cup tie at West Ham, following the introduction of Nasri and Diaby, should have served as a warning to their rivals of exactly how dangerous they can be. Home win.

3) Burnley v Stoke: Much will depend here on the progress of Bolton’s battle to wrest Owen Coyle away from Turf Moor, as there are bound to be repercussions for Burnley if the episode becomes protracted and bitter. By the time you read this, the issue could well be settled, but personally, I don’t understand how moving to Bolton would necessarily benefit Coyle’s career, particularly when he turned down the advances of Celtic in the summer, where he would at least have experienced European football, and he may be better off waiting for a club with loftier expectations to come calling, but stranger decisions have certainly been made in the past, and he will at least get his hands on an increased budget. Don’t expect too many goals either way in this match, as Stoke have still notched only four goals in ten away games so far, while Burnley’s last four home games have all ended 1-1. There have also only been two goals scored in total during the last three renewals of this fixture, which were all played in the Championship, and I expect a tight, nervy match as both sides will have identified this fixture as a prime source of three valuable points in their struggles to survive. Could Burnley register a fifth successive 1-1 draw at home? I wouldn’t bet against it.

4) Fulham v Portsmouth: Portsmouth may well live to regret their inability to follow up their admirable win over Liverpool with anything approaching that level of performance in defeats to West Ham and Arsenal, and their well-publicised financial difficulties continue to dominate proceedings at Fratton Park. With a bit of luck, the staff will at least have been paid for December by the time you read this, but the constant wrangling must inevitably weigh on the players’ minds as they prepare for each successive match, and I can only see defeat for them here, particularly as Yebda, Utaka, Belhadj and Kanu will be missing on African Cup of Nations duty. At least Aruna Dindane will also be on the plane to Angola, so it’s not all bad news.

5) Sunderland v Bolton: Again, I have the unknown outcome of the Owen Coyle saga to contend with in previewing this match, but whatever has or hasn’t happened by the time you read this, Steve Bruce will be relieved that his side’s scoring drought appears to be over. Having failed to score in five of their previous eight matches, Sunderland have now registered nine goals in their last four, and can be fancied to resume their winning ways at home as a result, particularly when you take into account that in a number of recent fixtures, it has only been their inability to take clear chances to kill their opponents off after taking the lead that has caused a stutter in their form. If this is to be Owen Coyle’s first match in charge, it could be a real eye-opener for him.

6) Wigan v Aston Villa: Wigan will find it tough to repeat their excellent win against Villa on the opening day of the season, but successive defeats to Arsenal and Liverpool will at least have placed some doubts in the minds of Villa’s players and fans heading into this match. Draws for Villa at Burnley and Wolves this season also lead me to err on the side of caution here, even though they have recorded victories on their last two visits to Wigan, including a resounding 4-0 success last season. Their hosts on Saturday have comfortably taken over as the Premier League’s least consistent side, as their home record of 3-3-3 proves, and in several recent matches, they have proved quite incapable of even resembling the same team in both halves of the same game. So, what do we make of this match then? No idea.

7) Birmingham v Man.United: United certainly can’t afford a repeat of their ineffective performance in the FA Cup here, as their hosts remain unbeaten in twelve matches in League and Cup, and showed in their last home match against Chelsea that they are capable of withstanding whatever even the top sides throw at them. City remain the stingiest home defence in the League, having conceded just five times in ten matches so far, but it must also be noted that they have only scored eight at the other end in the meantime. I am not expecting anything dramatically different from this encounter either, and as United haven’t registered a draw from their ten away matches so far, perhaps another 0-0 is the best way to go. No goalscorer is available at a standout 11/1 with bet365.com.

8) West Ham v Wolves: West Ham’s victory over Portsmouth was absolutely vital, but it will count for little if they fail to win on Sunday as there will be many more such nail-biters before the relegation battle comes to a conclusion in May. The omens are good for the Hammers, though, as Wolves have failed to win at Upton Park since 1978, and also lost to West Ham at Molineux in August. Having visited Chelsea, Man.U., Tottenham and Liverpool in their last four away matches, Wolves will be relishing the chance to pit their wits against a team closer to their standing, and I think the key to this game will be the side that West Ham are able to put out. If they continue to miss Scott Parker in particular, I wouldn’t dismiss the chances of Wolves gaining a valuable point, but if the Hammers are able to field a stronger side than the one that succumbed to Arsenal on Sunday, I fancy them to just sneak a one goal win.

9) Liverpool v Tottenham: Teddy Sheringham was the scorer of both of Tottenham’s goals the last time they won a League match at Anfield, and in the subsequent 17 years, I don’t think that Spurs will have faced a Liverpool side in such poor form. The Reds never looked like winning at Reading in the FA Cup despite fielding a pretty much first choice side, and Spurs will be confident of putting even more distance between themselves in fourth place and the chasing pack. It is only Tottenham’s occasional inability to finish off their hosts in some away games this season, notably at Everton and Aston Villa, that prevents me from plumping for an away win, and I think a 2-2 draw may be a good option at 16/1 with skybet or Victor Chandler.

10) Man.City v Blackburn: Three games, three victories, three clean sheets. Roberto Manciti has enjoyed an ideal start to his career in the Premier League, but it has to be said that those results were against poor opposition, and probably would also have occurred under the previous regime. He can do no more than win games, though, and another presentable opportunity to continue the run arises on Monday when Blackburn are the visitors. Last season’s defeat was Blackburn’s only loss at Man.City in seven Premier League visits, but they have quite simply been awful away from home this season, with just one win and seven goals scored in ten road trips so far. El Hadji Diouf will also be suspended following his red card last weekend (Sam Allardyce trying to justify that disgraceful tackle summed up just why he is viewed by many as such a loathsome character), and while Rovers may be able to put a dent in City’s clean sheet record under their new manager, I can only see a home win here.

This week’s fixtures are a rarity in that I find myself unable to reduce the number of selections for a suggested accumulator to fewer than six, but I really can’t see a reason why any of Chelsea, Bristol Rovers, Leeds, Norwich, Hibs or Celtic should fail to win their matches. The weather may claim one or two of them, and the odds aren’t particularly exciting as the two SPL sides are playing vastly inferior teams in the Scottish Cup, but I’m still having a go, and a successful £10 accumulator would return £46.53 at skybet.com.

Good Luck!
Posted by Nick