December 16, 2010
In this age of 24 hour multi-media and social networking, leaks and insider information, we nearly always have a fair idea in advance of which players are about to move on, or which managers are likely to be sacked or poached by other clubs, but I have to say, the departure of Sam Allardyce from Blackburn on Monday came as a complete shock to me, and we were provided with little initial information as to whether there was a disagreement with the club's new owners, whether he has been offered a job elsewhere, or whether he will be retiring to Argentina as Carlos Tevez's personal assistant. By the time you read this, much more information will probably have come to light about the reasons behind his departure, but even speaking as someone who tries to avoid looking at Allardyce's face as much as physically possible, I have to admit that it is difficult to see how any other manager could have done a better job at the club given the same resources. I can only surmise that with the transfer window looming, there was some sort of conflict over whether sufficient funds would be made available, but whatever the reasons for his departure, the only winners at this stage would appear to be the seven clubs below Blackburn in the table, who now have added impetus in their chase to overtake them.
This coming weekend's round of Premier League fixtures starts with an encounter featuring two of the more surprisingly successful sides of the season so far:
1) Sunderland v Bolton: At the start of the season, I don't think even the most optimistic of fans of these two sides would have thought that this would be a top seven clash, but a string of admirable performances has meant that both clubs now entertain realistic chances of European football next season. Sunderland's home form suggests that it will be a tough task indeed for Bolton to gain more than a point here, as their hosts have conceded just five times and remain unbeaten at the SOL so far, but Owen Coyle has also created a team spirit that makes his own side very difficult to get the better of. In fact, only Man.City and Arsenal have inflicted defeats on Wanderers on their travels this season, so this is not a straightforward match to call by any means. Plenty of goals have featured in this fixture recently, with thirteen in the last three renewals in the League, but Sunderland's recent miserly defending should result in a lower scoring affair this time around. Half of Bolton's away games have ended in 1-1 draws so far, and I don't think that is an unlikely outcome here either.
2) Arsenal v Stoke: The way they have been performing this season, I'm not sure that Arsenal deserved their all too brief stay at the top of the table, but with Chelsea facing Man.United on Sunday, they have an early chance to return as they face a visit from a side who have been defeated on their last eight visits to Arsenal's grounds. Having said that, it is no longer much of a surprise when the top sides fail to overcome Stoke, so this is not a match that I will be including on my coupon, but the Gunners should still have a little too much for their visitors to cope with.
3) Birmingham v Newcastle: Alan Pardew may have enjoyed a successful start to his latest managerial position, but there is no logical reason to believe that his appointment will automatically bring about an end to Newcastle's inconsistency in their first season back in the top flight. An attempt to become only the second side to win in the League at St.Andrew's will therefore be a real test of Pardew's abilities, and it is also worth remembering that the last five times this fixture has been played in League and Cup, the result has been a draw, as it has in half of Birmingham's home games so far, so that's undoubtedly where my money will be going on Saturday.
4) Blackburn v West Ham: It had looked as though Wolves and West Ham were going to get cut adrift at the bottom of the table, but last weekend's results have now left the Hammers on their own, needing to string three or four victories together urgently to remain competitive in the Premier League. However, when you consider that they have managed a paltry four goals away from home, and that their hosts on Saturday have conceded just six times in eight home games so far, I remain unconvinced that any such winning run will start at Ewood Park for Avram Grant's side. History is the one thing on their side, though, as they are unbeaten in their last four visits, but Blackburn showed no mercy to 19th placed Wolves in their last home match, and it is a bit of a struggle to see where West Ham will suddenly find sufficient inspiration to extend their admittedly fine run of results at Ewood Park. Home win.
5) Wigan v Aston Villa: On the face of it, we shouldn't expect too many goals here, as only West Ham have scored fewer away from home than Villa, while nobody has scored fewer home goals than Wigan. However, Villa will have taken great comfort from beating West Brom last weekend and have also won on their last three visits to the DW. If a fit Gabriel Agbonlahor was in their line-up, I would be marking Villa down to extend that run to four as his teammates seem incapable of scoring anywhere near as regularly as he did prior to his injury troubles kicking in, but there is no guarantee of his presence at this stage, so the outcome remains uncertain. However, Villa's solitary away win this season came in a similar type of encounter at Wolves, so I am prepared to take a chance on them pulling further away from danger with a narrow victory on Saturday.
6) Liverpool v Fulham: Northampton have won at Liverpool. Grimsby have won at Liverpool. Fulham, however, haven't managed that feat in 76 years of trying. They have held on for goalless draws in their last two visits, and you can be certain that will be their aim this time around as well, but I can't see them achieving it.
7) West Brom v Wolves: Wolves achieved a rare win in one of the West Midlands derbies last weekend while West Brom lost their own version, but this particular encounter is not one in which Mick McCarthy's side have a particularly good record, having scored just two goals in the last eight meetings at the Hawthorns in League and play-off matches. They also haven't won there since 1996, and I don't think that a scrappy 1-0 win last Sunday is sufficient to convince me that they are capable of reversing those trends this coming weekend. Home win.
8) Blackpool v Tottenham: Quite how they held on for three points at Stoke last weekend, only their club chaplain will have the right connections to be able to explain, but Blackpool are rapidly approaching their target for survival, and may well be able to take another step towards it here. Tottenham have a propensity for embarrassing themselves in this type of fixture, as defeats at Burnley and Wolves last season, and at West Ham this season have proved. Their chances will certainly be enhanced by Charlie Adam's suspension for this match, but however confident one can be that they will score at least a couple of goals in a match like this, their defending and certainly their goalkeeping leave a lot to be desired, so it is difficult to imagine that they will gain much more than a score draw here.
9) Chelsea v Man.United: Now that Frank Lampard looks set to return from a lengthy injury, it may be time to start taking Chelsea seriously again, particularly as they dominated possession for long periods at White Hart Lane on Sunday, and were only denied victory by an injury time penalty save from Stan Laurel in Tottenham's goal. They have also dominated this fixture in recent years, not having lost to United at Stamford Bridge since 2003, and I can see a hard-fought draw leaving both managers relatively satisfied at full-time.
10) Man.City v Everton: It's quite a mystery as to how different City's goalscoring exploits are away from home compared to at Eastlands this season. They have scored more goals away than any other Premier League side so far, yet at home, nobody at all has scored fewer than their meagre total of eight. Considering that they have also failed to score during the last three visits from Everton, Monday night's match may be a tricky one for City to negotiate. Following last weekend's failure to break down a stubborn Wigan rearguard, Everton are without a win in their last seven games, but have only been defeated twice away from home so far, and no other side has conceded fewer goals on the road, so all the signs point to a low-scoring affair, but one that I feel City may just edge. 1-0 is available at 6/1 generally.
Three teams that stand out to me for a treble this week are Portsmouth, Rangers and Dundee, and a successful £10 bet would return £30.56 at skybet.com. I rarely include away sides in my accumulators for various reasons, but with their hosts, Sheffield United, in turmoil this season and having lost their second manager already this term, I think Swansea could be worth a dabble at decent odds, and if you were to include them in a £10 four-timer with the previously mentioned three teams, the potential return would be £76.39, also with skybet.com.
Good luck!
Posted by Nick