Flutterama blog

December 30, 2010

English Premier League Gameweek 21 Preview

With the usual sprinkling of surprise results over the Christmas period, I was most pleased to secure a return on my suggested Boxing Day treble, as the postponement of all three selections resulted in one of my most successful December 26 accumulators of all time as my stake was refunded in full. The weather looks like it is relenting sufficiently to allow the vast majority of the New Year's Day programme to go ahead as planned, so here's a look at the Premier League matches due to take place this weekend:

1) West Brom v Man.United: If only Man.U. could win an away match, they would probably already have the title sewn up. Seven of their eight away matches have been drawn, three of them from winning positions, but this fixture could see them start to change those statistics for the better. Three consecutive defeats have anchored the Baggies just above the danger zone, and their record in this fixture is poor to say the least, having lost the last six League renewals and conceding twenty goals in the process. Another 3-1 beating may be on the cards at a tempting 13/1 with unibet.com.

2) Liverpool v Bolton: I'm usually quite a believer in following the trends when a team faces a side against whom they have a long winning streak, but I'm severely tempted to ignore recent results in this particular fixture. Bolton have lost on their last eight visits to Anfield, scoring just once in the process, but Liverpool are in such complete disarray at present that I simply can't see past an away win here. Bolton have suffered narrow 1-0 defeats on their last three road trips, but as those matches included visits to Man.City and Chelsea, there is certainly no disgrace in those results, and this may well prove to be the final nail in Roy Hodgson's coffin.

3) Man.City v Blackpool: The incredible charmed life of Blackpool's goal on their travels can surely not last for much longer, and I fear that this match may finally see them taking the heavy beating that they probably couldn't have argued with despite victories at Stoke and Sunderland. Once this match has been played, the Tangerines will have played twice as many away games as at home, so their position in the table is all the more admirable as a result, but I think City will score early and go on to record a big score here.

4) Stoke v Everton: Stoke are not a team to be relied on at the moment, as seven points from their last three away matches have been interspersed with home losses to Blackpool and Fulham, and with Everton having lost just twice away from home all season, another tough test awaits them here. The Toffees also have a proud recent record to maintain at Stoke, with their last defeat in the Potteries having come at this time of year way back in 1982. Perhaps another 1-1 draw may be the way to go on Saturday.

5) Sunderland v Blackburn: It's always quite amazing to watch the type of match where the hosts are so utterly dominant, but concede a goal on the break and then start to lose any semblance of calm in their search for an equaliser and subsequently a winner. Quite how Sunderland's usually reliable strike force failed to take any of the numerous chances created for them against Blackpool is beyond me, but they have an ideal chance to redeem themselves here. Rovers' win at West Brom may have come as a huge relief to Steve Kean, but I'm not sure it represents any significant upturn in their fortunes, and Nikola Kalinic's ban for a quite shocking and needless assault on Paul Scharner will be a blow for Blackburn. It will be tight, but I fancy Sunderland to get back on track.

6) Tottenham v Fulham: Fulham had to wait over sixteen months for the away win they recorded at Stoke on Tuesday, and I fear they may have a similarly lengthy wait for their next one. Spurs look in no mood to relent in their admittedly unlikely chase for the title, and even Younes Kaboul's sending-off didn't manage to stop them extending their lead in their 2-0 win over Newcastle. Fulham have scored just once in their last six League visits to White Hart Lane, and nothing that occurred in their victory at Stoke leads me to believe that they have suddenly turned the corner, so normal service should be resumed with another away defeat here.

7) West Ham v Wolves: The bottom two meet having managed to draw half of the division into the battle to avoid relegation following one or two notable recent results. West Ham are unbeaten in the three matches that were supposed to decide Avram Grant's future, while Wolves have won two of their last three, and also have the memory of a convincing win at Upton Park last March to inspire them in their quest for what would be their first back-to-back wins for over a year. It may sound strange to say, but the visitors should face far more of a threat here than they did against a shockingly underperforming Liverpool side in midweek, but I can see them holding on for a valuable point at least here.

8) Birmingham v Arsenal: Birmingham are in the midst of quite a difficult run of home fixtures, but with Tottenham, Man.U. and Chelsea having failed to overcome the Blues at St.Andrew's recently, it is not unlikely that Arsenal can be added to that list following this match. City have drawn over half of their League games so far and have nothing to prove in terms of resilience, so much will depend on Arsenal's team selection. Arsene Wenger faced much criticism following the eight changes he made for the midweek visit to Wigan, but I'm sure the return of Cesc Fabregas from suspension will inspire an improved performance here. However, they will also be facing a more capable side than Wigan, so a repeat of the last two results of this fixture may be on the cards, with the teams taking a point apiece.

9) Chelsea v Aston Villa: Chelsea desperately needed Wednesday's win over Bolton to avoid losing touch with the leaders, but it remained a rather unconvincing performance nevertheless. Having said that, they couldn't wish to face a more disappointing side this weekend, as Villa have now lost five of their last six League games, and haven't scored in their last three away matches. Until Chelsea can show that their troubles are really behind them, I won't be confident of backing them to beat any Premier League side, but they should certainly be able to provide more woe for Villa's fans. 

10) Wigan v Newcastle: Charles N'Zogbia looked likely to be a key figure as Wigan attempted to claw back a 2-1 deficit against Arsenal on Wednesday before his needless actions led to his sending off that handicapped his teammates, and his subsequent suspension means he misses the chance to further taunt his old side as he did with two goals at St.James's Park back in October. Alan Pardew's first match in charge was always likely to provide a false dawn, and that's exactly what has happened with two subsequent defeats leaving his side just three points away from danger. N'Zogbia's absence tempers my enthusiasm somewhat, but I still fancy that Wigan can extend a run that has seen them beat United by a one goal margin in the last five renewals of this fixture.

Four selections for you this weekend despite my earlier pledge to stick to trebles, and a successful £10 accumulator on Man.City, Southampton, Falkirk and Ayr would return £43.37 with stanjames.com. No update next week as it's FA Cup third round weekend, so I'll be back with a look at the Premier League fixtures due to take place the following week.

Happy New Year and good luck!
Posted by Nick