March 25, 2010
When new owners take over a football club, you always get the impression that the incumbent manager is living on borrowed time no matter how popular he is with players and fans, and in some cases however impressive the results he achieves. I think a number of people were surprised when the takeover at West Ham was completed that the new owners didn’t immediately replace Gianfranco Zola with their own choice, but it seems that recent results have now given them just the excuse they need to make a change and bring in their own man. Interviews with Zola after his team’s damaging defeat to Wolves showed him to be a man with the weight of the world on his shoulders who has run out of inspiration and seems resigned to his inevitable fate. If his side are relegated, the better players will inevitably be offered positions at other Premier League clubs, which offers little comfort to the fans who confronted some of their underperforming team following Tuesday’s match, but I wonder how much damage the season’s events have done to Zola’s confidence and self-belief, and whether we will see him managing at Premier League level in England again.
Another full programme to look forward to this weekend, and we begin with an intriguing match at St.Andrew’s:
1) Birmingham v Arsenal: Neutral commentators in the run-up to this match won’t let Arsenal forget that this was the fixture two years ago in which Eduardo’s leg was badly broken early on, and his teammates proceeded to lose their cool and their concentration, allowing Birmingham to rescue a point in injury time, and starting a slow, painful decline that allowed Man.United to snatch the title from Arsenal’s grasp. Can the same repeat itself? I don’t think it will. Arsenal’s response to the awful injury to Aaron Ramsey a few weeks ago has been far more composed than it was after the St.Andrew’s match in 2008, and the six consecutive wins they have recorded is exactly the sort of form they require at this late stage in the season if they are to pip Chelsea and United to the top. As I’ve said before, City are slightly more fallible at present than they were a couple of months ago, and their excellent home defensive record, which is only bettered by Man.United, will face a huge test here. I can see a 1-0 or 2-0 away win being the outcome.
2) Chelsea v Aston Villa: According to John Terry, this will all depend on the referee as the players are only responsible for 50% of the poor results his side have achieved recently. “I won’t mention the word conspiracy but...” blah, blah, blah. I won’t mention the words sore loser then, John. In fact, we have witnessed Chelsea being poor at the back for most of this season, and the statistic that they have lost points after having taken the lead seven times this season is the main reason why I think they could end up winning nothing at all. There is also a valid argument that there are too many arrogant and selfish individuals in their side for team spirit to match that of Man.U.or Arsenal, or even Portsmouth. Chelsea have quite simply been unable to put their opponents to the sword, as they did to Portsmouth on Wednesday night, as often as title challengers should. Had this match taken place two or three weeks ago, I would have fancied Villa to record their first win at Stamford Bridge since 2002, but they have been showing signs of fatigue amongst their relatively small squad recently, so I think the best they can hope for here is a not unlikely draw.
3) Hull v Fulham: I always find it interesting how some players simply cannot perform for a certain manager, but make an instant impact as soon as that manager is removed from his position. Caleb Folan will never convince me that he should be playing above Championship level, but two goals on his return to the side last Saturday so nearly provided Iain Dowie with a perfect start to his tenure. Folan actually scored the late winner in this fixture on the opening day of last season, and with Fulham well away from danger and looking forward to Wolfsburg’s visit in the Europa League, I think a similar outcome here is quite likely.
4) Tottenham v Portsmouth: In this fixture last season, Spurs were only denied continuing their long run of home victories over Portsmouth by some awful finishing by Darren Bent, who, like Bobby Zamora, has obviously thrived since departing White Hart Lane, but with Eidur Gudjohnsen proving at Stoke last week that a long spell on the sidelines hasn’t diminished his ability, I can’t see Tottenham making the same mistake on Saturday. A major factor to take into account given his performances this season is that Jamie O’Hara will be ineligible to play against his employers here. Portsmouth have been soundly beaten at all of the top sides’ grounds this season (apart from Chelsea, not surprisingly, where they only succumbed to a late penalty after Chelsea had taken an early lead), and I see no reason why this match should provide a different outcome.
5) West Ham v Stoke: I pity the first West Ham player who misplaces a pass or misses a chance in this match, as the fans will not hesitate to let their feelings be known if things don’t go their way on Saturday. I wonder whether the players targeted on Tuesday will react by increasing their effort, or just carry on appearing not to care about what happens to the club. I fear the latter in some cases, and Stoke are not the sort of side who will let the opportunity pass to take advantage. You may remember Ricardo Fuller and Andy Griffin coming to blows in this fixture last season, which at least showed the extent to which they cared about the fortunes of their side, and it is that sort of passion that their hosts really need to display on Saturday. Stoke, however, remain the joint lowest scorers away from home so far, and haven’t won in their last five matches, so despite West Ham’s predicament, they may have to settle for a 1-1 draw here.
6) Wolves v Everton: Wolves have remembered how to score goals at exactly the right time with seven goals in their last three games compared to none in their previous three, and they can possibly relax a little in the knowledge that a couple more wins should see them to safety. Their remaining fixtures include matches with Stoke, Fulham, Blackburn, Portsmouth and Sunderland, so I would be amazed if they blow their chance at this late stage, but they may still struggle to beat their visitors on Saturday. Everton are really working hard for their manager at the moment, and showed impressive resilience in defence at Man.City on Wednesday, while taking two of the few chances that came their way to inflict City’s first home defeat of the season. I fancy a score draw here to keep both sides’ impressive runs going.
7) Bolton v Man.U.: Fixtures like this one will be so vital to the three title challengers as they are so fraught with danger, and a Bolton side who have distinctly improved over the last few weeks will certainly not prove a pushover for United. In fact, United needed an injury time winner to record a 1-0 win on their last visit, and lost at the Reebok the previous season, so a trip to a side managed by the man who masterminded their early season defeat at Burnley will provide the Reds with a nervy afternoon. Bolton are also unbeaten in their last six at home, admittedly against lower quality opposition, and the outcome of this match is far from clear cut. I think one goal may well decide it, as has happened in the two previous renewals, but who will score it?
8) Burnley v Blackburn: Despite their position of mid-table security, Blackburn have still one just once away from home all season, but in the context of this fixture, it is certainly worth noting that their solitary victory came in another Lancashire derby at Bolton. Visits to their fierce rivals at Turf Moor have been rare in recent years, but Burnley haven’t even managed to score in the last three derbies, and look set for another tough afternoon on Sunday. Burnley have won just one of their last nine at home, and that includes defeats to strugglers Wolves and Portsmouth, so while I think they may finally manage to score against Rovers, an away win would be the logical conclusion.
9) Liverpool v Sunderland: With Liverpool now struggling to even qualify for the Europa League, they face a fixture in which their opponents have failed to score a single goal in their last five attempts. Sunderland are one of three clubs who won away on the first day of the season but haven’t managed another away win since then, but they are on the verge of achieving safety, and haven’t been beaten in their last five matches. The draws they have recorded at Old Trafford and Villa Park lead me to believe that it is entirely possible for them to achieve the same result at Anfield on Sunday.
10) Man.City v Wigan: City looked to have a straightforward chance of snatching fourth place via their games in hand before a frustrating defeat to Everton put Spurs firmly in the driving seat, and they will not necessarily relish a visit from a Wigan side who have lost just one of their four Premier League visits to Eastlands. This is usually a painfully low scoring encounter with just six goals registered in the last seven renewals, but I fancy that City’s despair after Wednesday’s result will see them going for the throat right from kick-off, taking an early lead and watching Wigan crumble as they have a tendency to when faced with a relentless onslaught.
I could initially only find two confident selections for the coming weekend’s fixtures, and the odds on offer were so poor that even I considered not backing them. Yes, that poor. But then I noticed the resurgence of Montrose, who had been one of the worst performing sides in Britain until their recent run of three consecutive victories, and who are available at 7/4 for a home match against faltering Berwick Rangers. So, adding the Gable Endies into the mix with Spurs and Millwall gives a potential payout for a winning £10 accumulator with bet365.com of £44.69.
Good Luck!
Posted by Nick