Flutterama blog

April 22, 2010

English Premier League Gameweek 36 Preview

I’d like to take this opportunity to heartily congratulate Newcastle for their straightforward win at Plymouth on Monday night, not because it clinched the Championship title for them, but because it rounded off yet another winning accumulator for us following Reading and Leyton Orient’s convincing wins at the weekend. I should also point out that if you had placed a tenner on each of the three matches for which I suggested backing “no goalscorer” last week, you would have received a further return of £95, so it was a lucrative weekend all round. I’m going for a bigger one this week as it has been very difficult to narrow down the selections from a number of likely looking sides on this weekend’s coupon, but first, let’s have a look at the next batch of Premier League fixtures:

1) Man.United v Tottenham: What an unpredictable week Tottenham have experienced, with their inability to put paid to an inferior Portsmouth side costing them their chance of winning the FA Cup, immediately followed by two outstanding victories over admittedly underperforming title-chasing opposition. No doubt many punters will now be backing Tottenham to win this match, particularly as United have been below par for some time, and never really carried much threat in last weekend’s derby prior to Paul Scholes’s late intervention. Spurs, in common with many other sides, have a long history of failure to win at Old Trafford, and haven’t achieved a victory there for 21 years, but they couldn’t possibly be making the journey north with more confidence. You may remember that they took a 2-0 lead in this fixture last season, only for a debatable penalty to set United on an incredible run of five goals in twenty two minutes. I fancy Spurs to take the lead again on Saturday, and with that in mind, 8/1 against Jermain Defoe scoring the opener looks a decent price at Corals. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility for them to hold on for at least a draw this time either.

2) Bolton v Portsmouth: Bolton’s unlikely victory at Stoke last week has set them up to ensure their safety with a victory here, and they should certainly be able to achieve that now that their four game scoreless run has ended. In fairness, the standard of the opposition during that run had plenty to do with it, and I’m convinced that Portsmouth’s makeshift defence won’t be able to prevent the inevitable survival celebrations at the Reebok on Saturday. Portsmouth also now have the added disadvantage that Lens have agreed to let Aruna Dindane turn out for Pompey for the rest of the season without incurring the added fees included in his contract. 2-0 or 2-1.

3) Hull v Sunderland: I’m writing this before Hull’s midweek match with Aston Villa, but the only remaining straw for them to clutch at this season is the fact that three of their last four matches are at home, as their away record has been absolutely abysmal. Luckily for them, Sunderland’s hasn’t been much better, but the Black Cats did record a 4-1 victory here last season, courtesy of three late goals, so the main danger to a repeat performance here is complacency after they confirmed their own survival last weekend. That possibility makes this a match to leave well alone from a betting perspective, but I think Hull’s nerves and desperation may be the decisive factors in a narrow away win.

4) West Ham v Wigan: If Wigan were entered for the Champions League at the opening stages, they would probably fall in the preliminary qualification round with a 7-2 aggregate defeat to FH Hafnarfjordur. If they were granted a bye through to the knockout stages, however, they would no doubt win the bloody thing with victories over AC Milan and Barcelona. Nobody has been able to successfully explain to me how a side that couldn’t beat Portsmouth or Bolton in the League, and lost 4-1 to Blackpool in the League Cup can take the scalps of Villa (away), Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal in the same season with the same set of players. So, for the purposes of this match, I’ll take a look at the table, see that West Ham are near the bottom, and plump for a home win.

5) Wolves v Blackburn: That’s now four games for Wolves with only a 95th minute goal from Arsenal’s Nicklas Bendtner to alleviate the tedium and complete lack of goals. Blackburn haven’t fared much better, with last weekend’s five goal thriller against Everton having followed two goalless matches, and the obvious conclusion you have to draw for this fixture would have be exactly that – a draw. Wolves may have been defeated just once in their last seven matches, but they really are making a meal of dragging themselves over the finishing line, and the fact that they have scored just ten times at home in seventeen matches so far is an absolute disgrace. For neutrals, I hope that Rovers score early on to make a game of it, but it is perhaps more likely that another low scoring draw may be the outcome.

6) Arsenal v Man.City: Once again, many people are taking Lukas Fabianski’s performance at Wigan on Sunday as an opportunity to jump on the “Arsenal need a quality goalkeeper” bandwagon, but the fact remains that the position has never really been addressed properly by Arsene Wenger since David Seaman’s retirement. Wright, Taylor, Shaaban, Manninger, Lehmann, Almunia etc.etc. The list is painfully long and while Arsenal continue to sign young midfielders of the highest quality, their efforts are always likely to be let down by individual mistakes at the back that they are powerless to prevent. So, following two unexpected defeats in a week, Arsenal are left with only the battle to keep Tottenham from overtaking them, and despite City’s recent resurgence, this is not a bad fixture to face with that target in mind. The last time City won at Arsenal, Rodney Marsh was amongst the scorers, and I think that despite the obvious disappointment of the last week, Arsenal’s run of victories in this fixture could well continue here. 

7) Aston Villa v Birmingham: Despite accusations of being a tired squad lacking in numbers and depth, Villa have maintained a good level of form with just one defeat in their last fourteen League matches. It is really only their inability to convert more than seven of their home matches into victories that stalled their efforts at Champions League qualification, but win number eight looks on the cards in this match. Birmingham have lost all but one of their last seven away League matches and have taken right pastings on their last two visits to Villa Park, so it is not unreasonable to expect those runs to continue on Sunday.

8) Burnley v Liverpool: There are two potential hazards for Liverpool coming into this match. First, their arduous journey via trains, planes and automobiles to Spain to play their midweek Europa League tie, and second, their shoddy away form, which has seen them gain just four victories on the road all season. You may also remember their embarrassing League Cup defeat at Turf Moor on their last visit in 2005, so even though the Reds should easily win a match against opponents of this calibre, I’ll be steering well clear of this one.

9) Everton v Fulham: HOME WIN, HOME WIN, HOME WIN. I can’t stress enough how strongly I fancy this to be a home win given Fulham’s lacklustre away form, Everton’s recent resurgence and certainly not least the fact that Fulham have been defeated on their last sixteen League visits to Everton. However, I should also remind you of the results from a couple of weeks ago in similar circumstances: Liverpool 0 Fulham 0 and Everton 2 West Ham 2. Surely this one has to go with form though, particularly as Fulham’s need to travel by unwelcome but sub-volcanic ash methods to Hamburg during the week may take its toll on the players.

10) Chelsea v Stoke: What a troublesome fixture this now appears for Chelsea following their convincing failure at Tottenham last weekend. Stoke have proved themselves quite capable of spoiling the party on many occasions in the last couple of years and Carlo Ancelotti would be well advised to watch and take lessons from a recording of last season’s match in which Stoke led until the 88th minute before a late collapse allowed Chelsea to nick a 2-1 win. With the added pressure now on the Blues, which would be increased yet further if Man.U. manage to beat Spurs the previous day, a nervy afternoon can be expected for all the johnny-come-latelys at the Bridge who wouldn’t remember the days when Stoke v Chelsea used to regularly be a big battle at the top of the table.

OK, let’s try and follow up with a five-timer that would return £80.50 for a successful £10 bet with paddypower.com. The teams to rely on are Newcastle, Forest, Norwich, Southampton and Huddersfield.

Good Luck! 
Posted by Nick