April 29, 2010
Well, I suppose we were due a slice of bad luck, but it’s still hard to take when four of your five accumulator teams have already won and the final selection are ahead in the fourth minute of injury time only for Jon Walters of Ipswich to pop up with an equaliser and deny us a 7/1+ payout. The fact that I know he has to put up with Roy Keane at training every day is some sort of comfort to me, but he still has much to answer for as I look to build up my battle funds for the World Cup. By the way, if anybody knows where I can get a dartboard sized picture of Jon Walters, please let me know.
With a far from vintage season drawing to a close, and several competitive matches on the fixture list this weekend, I bet Sky are regretting their choice of live match to kick off the weekend’s schedules:
1) Birmingham v Burnley: I’ve always wondered what the threshold is for a referee taking abuse from players and managers before they take any action, as they are perfectly entitled to send a player off if they are sworn at, but watching close-ups and lip-reading the foul-mouthed reactions of Birmingham’s players and manager towards Martin Atkinson following their defeat at Aston Villa, I was amazed that he decided to take no further action. Maybe the FA will, but I wouldn’t count on it. By the way, Alex, I thought it was a penalty as well, so it was far from the clear cut travesty of justice that you have convinced yourself it was. Anyway, Birmingham have now failed to win any of their last eight matches, and remembering their failure to beat Hull at St.Andrew’s a couple of weeks ago, this may be a decent chance for Burnley to at least reach the thirty point mark before they bid farewell to the Premier League. Actually, who am I kidding? Home win.
2) Man.City v Aston Villa: I think most armchair viewers would rather have had the option of watching this encounter, but I don’t really have much sympathy with armchair viewers in general, so they can either decide to actually go to a game or sit and be miserable in front of the Birmingham match instead, the lazy people. Anyway, Villa have given themselves a fighting chance of snatching fourth place with a run of three consecutive victories, and they have in fact gained as many points away from home as they have at home this season, so there really shouldn’t be too much fear for them in this trip, particularly as City have won just two of their last six home matches. Following two matches without scoring, though, I think we can at least count on City finding the net on Saturday, and I’m sure Villa will play their full part in an entertaining match, but may fall just short in a narrow defeat. Gareth Barry to score the winner perhaps just to rub it in?
3) Portsmouth v Wolves: It seems that every week recently, Wolves have been involved in a bore draw, and every preview I write for their following match features stats that show another one is on the way. This week is no different, as you’ll never guess the outcome on the only previous occasion this fixture has been played in the Premier League. That’s right, 0-0. Wolves will travel to the south coast having secured their safety with a run of five matches that have featured a total of just three goals, so I’d like to think that they will now open up a bit and try to show a little more of the flair which their players are capable of displaying, but I doubt it, and you can back “no goalscorer” at 9/1 with Stan James.
4) Stoke v Everton: Never has the phrase “we were lucky to get nil” been so apt as when Tony Pulis came out with it last Sunday. Stoke were completely taken apart at Stamford Bridge as they became the third side in three months to have conceded seven at Chelsea, but they need to look at how Villa recovered from a similar mauling with four wins and a draw from their next five League matches in order to try and get over the damage caused as soon as possible. It is always quite tricky to work out these end-of-season fixtures with little to play for, but we do have some notable statistics to guide us here with Everton’s current nine match unbeaten run, the fact that they have scored at least twice in each of their last four games, and also their decent record at Stoke, where they have won on their last three visits. Sounds like a recipe for an away win to me.
5) Tottenham v Bolton: This will be much more to Tottenham’s liking following their trip to Old Trafford last week especially after having to tread so carefully to avoid all the vomit on the pitch deposited by Evra and Nani. Bolton have already been beaten 4-0 at Spurs in the FA Cup this season, and I’d be surprised if they fare much better on Saturday.
6) Liverpool v Chelsea: On several occasions over the past few years, an underperforming Liverpool side have welcomed title challengers to Anfield and put up an unexpectedly strong showing to take the points, so you can expect a thoroughly competitive encounter here. In fact, Chelsea have struggled in all but one of their last six visits in the Premier League and Champions League, and with a visit from Wigan on the final day, this really is the key match left for them in their pursuit of the Premier League trophy. So, can we expect to see the Chelsea that tamely went under at Tottenham, or the one that comfortably put paid to Man.United at Old Trafford. With doubts over which players and tactics Ancelotti will employ, it is perhaps unwise to do anything other than watch and enjoy what is sure to be a fierce and unpredictable encounter.
7) Fulham v West Ham: West Ham’s fans will be mightily relived that their side don’t need anything from their final two fixtures as it is not easy to see their current standard of play being good enough to take more than a point from matches at Fulham and at home to Man.City. On the other hand, Fulham continue to defy those who believe they are punching above their weight, and a solid performance with a weakened side at Everton last Sunday only resulted in defeat thanks to a penalty that was even later than Jon bleeding Walters’s strike for Ipswich (I thought I’d got over it, but obviously not). The outcome of Fulham’s Thursday night match with Hamburg may well have a distinct bearing on the result here, but in my opinion, whatever the result, it could play into West Ham’s hands, as a victory may have Fulham’s squad looking ahead to the Europa League final rather than concentrating fully on this fixture, while a defeat may leave them feeling their season is now over. The Hammers also have a surprisingly good record at Craven Cottage, where they are undefeated in their last nine visits. In fact, the last Fulham victory came in the League Cup in the same 1974-75 season that they lost the FA Cup final to West Ham, and their last League victory over the Hammers came in a previous World Cup year – 1966. I fancy a low scoring game with at least a point for the Hammers.
8) Sunderland v Man.United: I can’t imagine Steve Bruce having his side prepared to do anything other than roll over for United here. The visitors have won their last three visits to the Stadium of Light and I can’t see them letting this chance slip, particularly if Chelsea have failed to win at Liverpool earlier on.
9) Wigan v Hull: It looks like Hull will be going down with barely a whimper as the lack of any sort of creative spark, desire or battling spirit in their last two matches must have been an enormous disappointment to their fans, who would at least have expected their team to give it their all against Aston Villa and Sunderland. On Monday, they re-visit the scene of their embarrassing 4-1 defeat in the FA Cup in January, and I think they could lose by a similar margin this time around.
10) Blackburn v Arsenal: It’s not often that you can say that Arsenal have failed to win any of their last four matches, but Arsenal have failed to win any of their last four matches. Taking that into account, together with the fact that Blackburn have drawn three of their last four, and only conceded an injury time goal to lose the remaining match leads me to believe that we might witness another low scoring draw here in a match that has absolutely nothing riding on it whatsoever.
Thankfully, Jon Walters is not playing in any of this week’s selected matches, so I would suggest trying a £10 accumulator on Spurs, Huddersfield, Swansea and West Brom that would return £51.26 with Paddy Power if all won their games.
Good Luck!
Posted by Nick