Flutterama blog

August 12, 2010

English Premier League Gameweek 1 Preview

Despite the best efforts of Sky, I can’t really remember a much more low key start to a season and a lower level of anticipation for the competitions to come. The negative nature of the much-anticipated World Cup has played a major part in this, with so many matches having featured sides with no ambition other than to pack their defence and hope for the best. Only Germany and Argentina seemed willing to really let loose and produce some entertainment for the fans, but the fact that neither side came very close to winning the tournament probably means that just as many coaches will be willing to adopt a risk-free, negative approach at the next major tournament. Following the attitude on display particularly from members of the French and English squads which emphasised just how ill-disciplined many players are at present, I sense that this may be the season when things could get quite ugly at many grounds as we witness fans’ frustration at players who really couldn’t seem to care less about anything other than their own salaries and inflated egos developing from increasing levels of booing and anger at many grounds into something rather more serious, but I sincerely hope that I am wrong on that front. Another reason for the perceived lack of excitement leading into the new season is the relative inactivity in the transfer market this summer, which makes it quite difficult to see anyone mounting a successful challenge to Chelsea and Man.United for the title, or to Blackpool for last place, but again, I hope that I am proved wrong over the next few months. 

I usually am.

So here goes with the first batch of Premier League fixtures for 2010-11:

1) Tottenham v Man.City: Until last season, this was the most predictable fixture in League football, as Spurs had won the previous five renewals by the same score of 2-1. However, they still managed to beat City at White Hart Lane last season, even if the scoreline of 3-0 was a bit of a novelty, so they maintained a proud record of having lost just one of their last thirteen home League matches against Man.City. City’s poor pre-season results in the USA and Germany lead me to believe that they still haven’t quite got the hang of this spending money wisely lark, and with the need to shift some big names from their squad under the new League rules, I would predict that Roberto Mancini may be one of the higher profile managers to come under serious pressure this season, starting on Saturday with a defeat. 2-1 to Tottenham is available at a generous 9/1 with skybet and bluesq.com.

2) Aston Villa v West Ham: Even before the shock departure of Martin O’Neill, I had a feeling that these clubs would finish slightly closer to each other in the table than last season, as Villa have failed to strengthen their squad at all and still have the probability of James Milner’s departure (which may well be confirmed by the time you read this) to deal with, while West Ham’s signings on and off the pitch have been encouraging enough to indicate that a repeat of last season’s turbulent battle against relegation is less likely. The Hammers don’t tend to score often at Villa Park (just one goal in their last four visits), but they have managed to draw on the last two occasions, and I fancy another stalemate this time around.

3) Blackburn v Everton: It was only Everton’s poor start to last season, mainly due to numerous injuries to key players, that stopped them from mounting a serious challenge on the top four, and their strong finish to the season, together with a now injury-free squad and the addition of a player with tremendous potential in Jermaine Beckford, leads me to believe that Toffees’ fans could be in for an exciting time over the next nine months. There can’t be too many grounds that would offer them such an ideal opportunity to get off to a flying start, as they are unbeaten at Ewood Park in the League on their last six visits, and managed to beat old misery guts’s side with an injury time Tim Cahill strike there last season. It may be due to the ongoing takeover saga at Blackburn that they haven’t strengthened their side over the summer, but whatever the reason, I can see them getting off to the worst possible start here.

4) Bolton v Fulham: I imagine that if Owen Coyle had taken over at Bolton earlier in the season, they wouldn’t have been flirting with the bottom three for so long last year, but in the end, they pulled nine points clear of danger and will hope to have a rather more comfortable season this time. The signing of Martin Petrov strikes me as an encouraging one, while Saturday’s visitors, Fulham, have had a disrupted pre-season due to their search for a new manager, eventually culminating in the appointment of their second choice in Mark Hughes. I always got the impression last season that Fulham’s decent showing was down to Roy Hodgson getting the absolute maximum out of an average group of players, and the first few months of this campaign will shed much light on that opinion. Having had a relatively short time to work with his new players, Hughes may be in for a nasty surprise as he starts his tenure with a defeat.

5) Sunderland v Birmingham: While working my way through the fixtures writing previews, I initially passed over this one as I couldn’t find anything of interest to say about either side, their signings or their campaigns to come. I’ve returned to it now having completed the remaining previews and still can’t think of anything.

6) Wigan v Blackpool: You would have thought that having defied incredible odds to gain promotion, Blackpool’s owners would at least have brought in one or two players hungry to make their name at Premier League level and give their side some sort of remote hope of winning a game or two this season, but the remarkable lack of incoming transfers at Bloomfield Road leaves their chances of survival looking negligible at best, and Stan James’s offer of 11/8 against them being bottom of the table on January 1st looks a gift. This game had to be switched to the DW because the replacement for Blackpool’s dilapidated and quite disgraceful away fans’ stand isn’t ready for use yet, and that may be a regrettable turn of events, as getting off a decent start would have been vital in Blackpool’s attempts to beat Derby’s all-time low of 11 Premier League points in a season. A largely second choice Wigan side were beaten 4-1 at Bloomfield Road in the League Cup last season, but at home against a group of Football League journeymen, they should get their revenge.

7) Wolves v Stoke: What an appetising opener. These two were the lowest scorers in the Premier League last season, and neither side has managed to attract the sort of strikers that may alter that statistic this time around, although it has not been for the want of trying in Stoke’s case. Three of the last six meetings between these sides at Molineux have ended goalless, and I wouldn’t hold out much hope of that scoreline occurring here either. No goalscorer is available at 8/1 with Coal and boylesports.com.

8) Chelsea v West Brom: I’m not sure what reasons are being bandied about in-house, but Chelsea have suffered some quite embarrassing defeats in pre-season. I’m sure the World Cup will be blamed, but when you consider how little effort many of their players put in, and how early they exited the competition (the miserable, selfish Nicolas Anelka’s bottom lip exiting even earlier than most), I’m not sure that is a valid excuse at all. West Brom head into their latest Premier League campaign in much better shape than last time around and, having been able to hold onto their best players, I’m sure they will be able to improve on their last placed finish in 2009. However, five consecutive defeats at Stamford Bridge without scoring is a tricky record to overcome, and a narrow, fortunate home win may be the outcome here.

9) Liverpool v Arsenal: We’ve seen many times in the past how an unsettled star player at any club can cause major rifts on and off the field as soon as passes are misplaced, chances are missed, or if there is a perceived lack of effort, and the situation with Cesc Fabregas must be a worrying one for Arsene Wenger despite the player’s assertion that he is fully committed to Arsenal this season. I don’t hold out too much hope for either of these clubs making a lasting title challenge this season, but this is an opening fixture neither would have wished for as they will not want to lose ground on their close rivals too early in the season. At least neutral fans should be able to enjoy an entertaining start to the season, as this fixture has produced no fewer than 37 goals in the last seven renewals in League and Cup. As for the outcome, much will depend on whether it is Joe Cole or Marouane Chamakh who settles better into their new team on their debut, and I would recommend avoiding this one from a betting perspective, and instead enjoying it from a comfy sofa with beer and nibbles in hand perspective.

10) Man.U. v Newcastle: In Newcastle’s last relegation season in 2008-09, they actually kicked off with a creditable 1-1 draw at Old Trafford, which displayed few of the signs of the calamities to come during the following months. They return to the Premier League with a far more solid looking side, and a forward in Andy Carroll who looks sure to impress on the field, if he manages to stay out of prison long enough following a number of recent scrapes with the law. I can’t imagine how many hundreds of times I’ve seen the famous footage of Newcastle’s defeat to Hereford in the FA Cup in 1972, but the following week, they actually went to Old Trafford and secured their last win there, so they haven’t taken much from this fixture over the last 38 years, but it really wouldn’t surprise me if they were able to keep their momentum going by taking a point on Monday. 

If you fancy a bet this weekend, then I would suggest that Brighton and Huddersfield might be the most reliable teams, and a winning £10 double would return £24.23 with Victor Chandler. If you wanted to increase the potential payout, you could try throwing Wigan and East Stirling into the mix, and the four-fold would return £69.81 with bet365.com to a £10 stake if all won their matches.

Good luck!
Posted by Nick