Flutterama blog

November 3, 2011

English Premier League Gameweek 11 Preview

Another week, and another 39 goals added to the impressive Premier League total so far, and this really is turning into a thoroughly entertaining season for everybody except fans of Wigan. This coming weekend, the top seven all face sides who will do well to finish in mid-table in May, so there is every prospect of another bumper crop from the following set of matches:

1) Newcastle v Everton: Demba Ba is rapidly establishing himself as the signing of the season, and on Monday, he came back to haunt the side who turned him down for not being fit enough by destroying them with a hat-trick. He should make the difference for the Magpies in this fixture as well, considering that they lost the corresponding match last season due to starting with an uninspiring forward line of Leon Best and Peter Lovenkrands. Everton remain hugely unpredictable, and their victory at Fulham in their last away match leads me to be a little cautious, but the hosts should manage to record a narrow win here.

2) Arsenal v West Brom: OK, so they still can't defend away from home, but if Arsenal manage to maintain such devastating form going forward as they did at Stamford Bridge last Saturday, their climb back into the top four will be assured. Their defensive record at home remains solid, with just four goals conceded so far, and the four consecutive victories they have recorded since their opening defeat to Liverpool could spell trouble for an inconsistent West Brom side. It is worth remembering that the Baggies won 3-2 on their last visit to the Emirates, but I am happy to put that down to a newly promoted side catching their hosts cold early in the season, and West Brom had failed to win any of their previous seven games at Arsenal's grounds. The continued absence of Shane Long, combined with the brilliance of Robin van Persie is enough to convince me that a home win will be the outcome here.

3) Aston Villa v Norwich: Villa have drawn 60% of their League games so far, and it would come as no surprise if this match was to end all square as Norwich have shown themselves to be most resilient this season, particularly in coming back for a 3-3 draw with Blackburn courtesy of the most ludicrous penalty award you are ever likely to see. As the matches date back to the 1990s, it may not be the most significant statistic, but four of the last five meetings between the sides have ended in draws, and that will do for me this time around.

4) Blackburn v Chelsea: Two consecutive London derby defeats, although in dramatically different styles, have provided AVB with a swift dose of realism that he doesn't appear to be handling in the most convincing manner. All of a sudden, a fixture which his team should be winning at a canter with their eyes shut looks fraught with danger, particularly as Rovers put in a hugely improved performance at Carrow Road last week. It is five years since the home side won this fixture, but in the meantime, they have hardly been overwhelmed by Chelsea, and it took a very late goal to secure an away win for the Blues in last year's renewal. So, while I expect Chelsea to get back on track by taking the three points, I'm also expecting them to face a tough battle to get them.

5) Liverpool v Swansea: The last time Swansea visited Anfield, the match ended 8-0. On only two of their last nine League visits have they conceded fewer than three goals. Only Arsenal have conceded more goals than Swansea away from home so far. Draw your own conclusions from that lot.

6) Man.U.v Sunderland: George Best was on the scoresheet for United the last time they won at Old Trafford. That was United's last League game before they started preparing for the European Cup Final in 1968, so even then there was an excuse for the defeat. There will be no such excuse on Saturday, but a Sunderland side who haven't been defeated by more than a goal so far should not be taken lightly. With Steve Bruce looking more like he is on the verge of a heart attack every time I see him on TV, I hope there is little incident in the match for his sake, but unfortunately it may be another case of coming close to taking points off the big boys but falling just short again.

7) QPR v Man.City: You will probably see a changed starting line-up for QPR here following their much-improved performance in the second half at Spurs after three substitutions, but it shouldn't really matter what side they put out with City averaging four goals per game on the road. It's rare to see any side priced up at no better than 4/11 for an away win in the Premier League, but you have to think that is a fair price on current form, and unibet.com's prices of 18/1 against wins for City by 4-0 or 4-1 may be worth a small dabble.

8) Wolves v Wigan: I know they have their quotas to keep up, but some of Sky's selections for TV coverage really make the mind boggle, and never has mine boggled quite so violently as when I noticed this match being given pride of place on the Sunday schedules. I suppose I have to preview it anyway, so I'll start by pointing out that in five of their last six home matches, Wolves have at some stage found themselves two goals down. The exception was a League Cup tie against Millwall, so there is at least one straw for Wigan to clutch at. Another straw is represented by the fact that Wigan have won on their last two visits to Molineux. However, a team that has only managed to score once away from home in the League this season cannot be relied upon to extend that run to three, and a draw may be the best they can hope for here.

9) Bolton v Stoke: I don't think anybody is really surprised by the stupidity of footballers anymore, but it was interesting to note Mark Clattenburg having a word with Ricardo Gardner at half time last week at the Liberty to explain the yellow card he had issued the Bolton player, so for Gardner to then commit the most moronic of fouls to get himself sent off within three minutes of the restart and scupper his side's chances at Swansea was truly incredible. Anyway, Stoke's collapses in the League following their last three Europa League ties will give the Trotters plenty of hope here, as will the fact that Stoke haven't won at Bolton in eight attempts since 1990. Only one of Bolton's matches so far has produced fewer than three goals, and I fancy that run to continue with Bolton gaining their first home points of the season.

10) Fulham v Tottenham: Whichever way you look at this match, it screams "away win" at you, so I'll follow the obvious signs and end up with egg on my face as usual.

Four selections make up this week's accumulator, and a successful £10 bet on Liverpool, Huddersfield, MK Dons and Montrose would return £51.59 with Stan James.

Good luck!
Posted by Nick