Flutterama blog

December 16, 2011

English Premier League Gameweek 16 Preview

So, it's game on again at the top of the Premier League. Whether through City's complacency or AVB's siege mentality rubbing off on his players, Monday night's result has at least closed the gap slightly and allowed Man.United to get within one win of the summit again. With City facing Arsenal, United at QPR and Chelsea at Wigan this weekend, things could get even more interesting by the time the following matches have been completed:

1) Blackburn v West Brom: The sixth and seventh goals that Blackburn have conceded in the last six minutes of League matches this season cost them dear on Sunday as Sunderland saw the benefit of the extra lift that the installation of a new manager can sometimes provide. The game also represented the fifth time this season that Rovers have failed to hold onto a lead, and it is difficult to see how that situation can be remedied as, the longer it continues, the earlier in a game panic sets in amongst their nervous players. The Baggies will be desperate to put right their own calamitous weekend as soon as possible, but they haven't managed to score at Ewood Park on their last three visits and have only secured one win over Blackburn in the last eleven meetings. This may be a good opportunity to start overturning those stats.

2) Everton v Norwich: It must be quite frustrating to be an Everton fan as nothing really seems to have changed much at Goodison Park over the last few years, and their form this season is pretty much the same as last season and the season before that. With that in mind, it is worth looking at how they performed against the newly promoted sides at Goodison last season, and it is not encouraging. Defeats to Newcastle and West Brom plus two very late goals to overcome Blackpool 5-3 will surely give Norwich plenty of encouragement here, particularly when allied to the Toffees' defeat to QPR back in August. Only QPR have scored fewer home goals than Everton as well, so I fancy a not so surprising surprise away win here.

3) Fulham v Bolton: ...and still we wait for Bolton to draw a match. Three of their last four League games with Fulham have been drawn, so I'll carry on tipping them to draw in the knowledge that they can't go a whole season without a stalemate. Cue a home win.


4) Newcastle v Swansea: The decimation of Newcastle's first choice defence had a damaging impact at Carrow Road last Saturday, but this match should represent less of a test for their stand-ins. The difference between Swansea's home and away form could not be more stark, and the fact that they have managed just six away goals so far, and have lost to nil on their last three visits to St.James's Park leads me to believe they are likely to face defeat here.


5) Wolves v Stoke: We're not exactly faced with a mouthwatering fixture list so far are we? Stoke on the road is never one to get the juices flowing either. Just four goals is their measly contribution on their travels so far, so the surprise is that they have managed to record two wins and a draw from their seven away trips to date. Their scoring record at Molineux is equally as disappointing as they have only scored more than once on one of their last ten visits, but I don't trust Wolves to take advantage of such uninspiring figures, and I'm happy to side with a low-scoring draw here.


6) Wigan v Chelsea: Following Monday night's confidence booster, Chelsea need to make sure they don't slip up against the division's lower placed teams, but apart from their controversial defeat at QPR, the only sides to have overcome the Blues so far have been Man.U., Arsenal and Liverpool. They have also recorded several thumping wins over Wigan in recent seasons, and I expect the home side's tricky run of upcoming fixtures against Chelsea, Liverpool and Man.U. to open with a defeat.


7) QPR v Man.United: Had QPR not waited until 15 minutes from the end to start testing their hosts, they may well have taken a point from Anfield last weekend, but judging by the way they approached their home matches against Chelsea and Man.City earlier this season, this may be far more of a contest than some might expect. I don't expect too many goals for Rangers though, as United have only conceded an incredible three goals away from home so far, and as I mentioned before, nobody has scored fewer home goals than QPR. So, the outcome will depend on how United's players deal with the hostile atmosphere they will face, and I think their vast experience of such situations could be decisive in a 1-0 away win.


8) Aston Villa v Liverpool: Another match in which I don't expect many goals. Only Fulham and Sunderland's away games have produced fewer goals than Liverpool's, while Villa's home games are only marginally more productive. It is also worth pointing out that the last nine League meetings between these sides at Villa Park have produced a not very impressive ten goals, so I'm happy to side with a low-scoring draw on Sunday.
 
9) Tottenham v Sunderland: This fixture is made all the more intriguing by last weekend's results, as Tottenham's lengthy unbeaten run came to an end at Stoke, while Sunderland's lengthy beaten run also came to an end in Martin O'Neill's first match in charge. Despite those events, you would have to fancy that Spurs would be able to swiftly resume winning ways at home against a team still in a precarious position, but too many times in recent seasons, a strong looking Tottenham side has come unstuck when faced with a seemingly simple task, including in last year's renewal of this fixture, so I'll be leaving this one out of my betting calculations this week.


10) Man.City v Arsenal: City should have learnt a harsh lesson on Monday in throwing away a comfortably dominant position through ill-discipline and complacency, but they are immediately faced with another difficult challenge if they are to remain in top place this weekend. Arsenal have scored eleven goals in winning their last three away matches, and are possibly the best placed side in the League to take advantage if City's defenders show any of the frailties that have been apparent at times this season. City have also failed to score against Arsenal in any of their last three League meetings, so in what should be a fascinating game of football, I can see the Gunners coming away with at least a point here.


As happens so often, just one selection let us down last weekend, but I have another four suggestions for you this week, and a successful £10 accumulator on Chelsea, Shrewsbury, Cowdenbeath and Stranraer would return £62.37 with Stan James.
 Good luck!
Posted by Nick