December 30, 2011
The Boxing day fixtures once again provided the traditional surprise results which frustrate punters year in year out with, notably, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City failing to take advantage of lowly opposition. Seven draws from the ten top-flight fixtures left the table with only minimal changes, but there was certainly no surprise that Bolton didn't take part in the stalemate-fest, as they have now played 33 games in all competitions since their last draw, dating back to February. This Saturday's fixture against Wolves may well provide the breakthrough in that particular run, but let's start this week's preview with Friday night's potential cracker at Anfield:
1) Liverpool v Newcastle: It is beyond me how successive Liverpool managers have failed to deal with the problem of their team failing to convert their superiority into wins in so many home games against relegation-threatened sides, and you can now add Mark Bunn to the lengthy list of visiting goalkeepers who have put in man-of-the-match performances at Anfield to deny Liverpool victory this season. Goalkeepers' activities in matches between these two usually involve picking the ball out of the net, as in the last six meetings, one team or the other has scored at least three goals. Newcastle usually find it a struggle to keep pace at Anfield, having lost on their last six visits by two or more goals, and having scored just once themselves in the process. As it is not in Newcastle's nature to sit back and defend, which is the tactic that frustrates Liverpool so much, I fear they may again fall prey to their hosts.
2) Man.U. v Blackburn: United are certainly not a team that suffer from the same malaise as Liverpool, so there can surely be only one likely outcome here. Rovers have lost their last seven matches at Old Trafford in League and Cup, conceding 24 goals in the process, so a heavy defeat awaits them on Saturday.
3) Arsenal v QPR: This was also a New Year's Eve fixture back in 1994, when John Jensen finally scored his long-awaited first goal for Arsenal. Unfortunately for him, Rangers then scored three at the other end. That result extended QPR's unbeaten run at Highbury to four, but with defensive reinforcements a huge priority, it may be many, many years before they can even start a one-match unbeaten run at the Emirates.
4) Bolton v Wolves: So, has the moment finally arrived? I'm not sure. Only one of the last ten meetings between these two has ended all square, and Bolton have certainly had the measure of Wolves in recent years at the Reebok with four wins from the last five encounters there. However, only a narrow win over a shockingly poor Blackburn side has punctuated a run of six defeats for Bolton, and I think Wolves could take advantage here.
5) Chelsea v Aston Villa: Three consecutive 1-1 draws still don't seem to have persuaded AVB that his side are not capable of reaching the top two, but perhaps another disappointing stalemate here may provide the final nail in the coffin. Both of last season's encounters ended all square, and with the unbearably unambitious Alex McLeish in charge, I don't think a goalless draw is out of the question at a very tempting 16/1 generally.
6) Norwich v Fulham: Fulham were the side that sent Norwich down on their last Premier League adventure with a 6-0 tonking, and they have certainly provided some tough times for the Canaries, with a run of eight unbeaten games in League and Cup. Norwich didn't even score in the last four of those matches, but of more relevance this time around is the fact that Norwich have failed to keep a clean sheet all season. Fulham aren't exactly prolific scorers on the road, with fewer than anybody else (5) so far, but they may well be able to record a low-scoring draw here.
7) Stoke v Wigan: Few Wigan fans would have believed their side could take two points from their matches with Chelsea and Liverpool, and their side will certainly head to the Britannia with more confidence than might have been the case a month ago. In fact, Wigan are unbeaten in their last four meetings with Stoke, and won this fixture last season, so it may not be beyond them to match that performance this time around.
8) Swansea v Tottenham: Swansea's third consecutive home game against London opposition, and this certainly promises to be the toughest one of the lot. Interestingly, though, Spurs will be trying for their first win at Swansea for 65 years, but having comfortably put paid to the other promoted sides, they should have little difficulty here.
9) West Brom v Everton: Everton's matches are not proving very prolific at the moment, as none of the last five has seen either team scoring more than once, but David Moyes will certainly be pleased that his side have climbed into the top half prior to this match. West Brom, despite having scored fewer home goals than anybody else, sit one place above Everton, so perhaps we should expect a tight, low-scoring spectacle, and maybe the first League draw between these two at the Hawthorns for nearly 28 years.
10) Sunderland v Man.City: It wasn't so much the draw at West Brom that surprised me about City's last outing as the fact that a team averaging just under three goals per game failed to score for the first time this season. I expect them to revert to type here despite the fact that Sunderland won this fixture with a last minute penalty last season, and City can regain the winning thread with ease.
As I've previously stated many times, the festive fixtures are a minefield for punters, so I'm leaving the normal weekly accumulator alone until we're comfortably into January However, rather than leave cash in my pocket, I'll be having a go on the "Both Teams To Score" coupon at Skybet, where a £10 fourfold would return £82.63 if all eight teams scored in the matches at Bristol Rovers, Aldershot, Preston and Bolton.
Good luck!
Posted by Nick