Flutterama blog

December 9, 2011

English Premier League Gameweek 15 Preview

Some of you may remember Rob Styles, who thankfully retired from refereeing some years ago, but infuriated fans up and down the country with his liberal use of the red card in situations where one certainly wasn't warranted, while seeming unable to distinguish between dangerous tackles and those that were simply hard but fair. The latest incarnation of Styles, Stuart Attwell, who has featured in this column several times previously for quite unbelievable errors, managed to achieve a rare feat on Saturday by issuing a red card that not a single person in the stadium representing either side thought was the correct decision. If a player nearly 50 yards from goal and close to the touchline can be deemed to have been denied an obvious goalscoring opportunity when he is fouled, then you had better prepare yourself for several red cards per game in future. Every season that Attwell has been refereeing games, he has pushed the boundaries of fallibility further and further. Harking back to his most notorious blunder, if you can award a goal when the ball hasn't even passed between the posts, never mind crossing the goal line, your suitability for the job must surely be brought into serious question. However, as the FA's chosen one, each subsequent serious error has been "punished" with a brief drop into the Football League followed by swift reinstatement to the top flight, where more embarrassment inevitably occurs. How much longer will it take before the powers that be quietly take him to one side and tell him he has found the wrong profession? 

Despite the high profile of referees last weekend, we witnessed several high scoring and thrilling encounters, so let's hope for more of the same amongst this lot:

1) Arsenal v Everton: Arsenal's dismantling of Wigan last weekend extended their unbeaten League run to seven games, and looking at the history of this fixture, they should have little trouble in recording another win on Saturday. Fourteen wins and two draws is their admirable record in their last sixteen home matches against Everton in League and Cup, and as all five of Everton's wins so far have come against teams currently below them in the table, I'm confident that they will fail again here.

2) Bolton v Aston Villa: Bolton's attempts at climbing out of the bottom three have been rather hampered by having players sent off in the opening twenty minutes of their last two games, and three red cards in their last five games. On Saturday, the only team without a draw faces the team with the most draws in a fixture which produced four consecutive draws between 2005 and 2009. The conclusion I draw from that is a draw.

3) Liverpool v QPR: An eye-catching stat from the history of these sides' meetings is just how close they usually (and surprisingly) are. Only two of the last sixteen meetings have featured a winning margin of greater than one goal (one for each team), but ten home wins from the last twelve encounters at Anfield leads me to the inevitable conclusion of a tough afternoon for Rangers on Saturday against a side desperate not to suffer consecutive embarrassments against West London opposition.

4) Man.U. v Wolves: This fixture was played in the League and League Cup last season, and on both occasions, United needed a last minute winner. Prior to those meetings, Wolves hadn't scored in their last six League games at Old Trafford, and with United having secured four 1-0 wins and a 1-1 draw that should have been a 1-0 win in their last five games, the odds of 15/2 on offer at William Hill against another similar scoreline could be rewarding.

5) Norwich v Newcastle: Following a testing trio of fixtures, Newcastle now face four very winnable matches, starting at Carrow Road, where Norwich have been the epitome of inconsistency this season. The Magpies suffered from a lack of variety and imagination upfront against Chelsea last time out, but will not face as robust a defence in this match. The last three renewals of this fixture have ended with a 2-1 scoreline, and I fancy the same again, with the visitors coming out on top.

6) Swansea v Fulham: Away matches look likely to prove Swansea's main weakness this season, so fixtures like this one take on even more importance as a result. Fulham find themselves in the unheard of situation of having compiled a three match unbeaten League run away from home, and should be fancied to keep things exceedingly tight here in order to maintain that record. Don't expect many goals, as Swansea's home matches and Fulham's away matches are far and away the least fruitful in the League, so a 0-0 or 1-1 outcome is highly likely.

7) West Brom v Wigan: Another firecracker of a match in prospect here. Nobody has scored fewer home goals than the Baggies' six, while nobody has scored fewer away than Wigan's four so far. Wigan's win at Sunderland on their last away day can be put down in no small measure to the desperately low level of confidence at the SOL in the last days of Steve Bruce's reign, and this looks the perfect opportunity for West Brom to regain the winning thread.

8) Sunderland v Blackburn: There must have been some pretty hefty promises of cash being made available for players for Martin O'Neill to have come off ITV's comfy sofa and return to management, but without being able to spend anything until January, Sunderland's slide may have longer to run yet. They have still only won once at home, but Blackburn have yet to win away and have still failed to keep a clean sheet all season. With so much ineptitude on display in this match, Stuart Attwell would be wise choice of referee, but whoever is in charge, I can quite easily see a Keystone Cops style encounter producing plenty of goals. Anyone fancy 3-3 at 66/1?

9) Stoke v Tottenham: Two League wins and progress in the Europa League have put a swift end to Stoke's wobbly run of form, but they couldn't find opponents in better form than Spurs to face on Sunday. Tottenham are also one of the few teams for whom a trip to the Britannia holds little fear, as they have won on their last two visits, and could well have made it three if they hadn't had Gareth Bale sent off after 17 minutes of their previous match there. Only one of the last eight meetings between these two has seen a winning margin of more than one goal, so I'm happy to go for a third consecutive 2-1 away win in this fixture this time around.

10) Chelsea v Man.City: Prior to 2009, Chelsea had a real hold over City, having recorded an amazing 18 wins and 2 draws in 20 meetings. Things changed dramatically with the arrival of City's cash injection, and the Wayne Bridge/John Terry affair, which saw the famous spurned handshake before Chelsea's 4-2 defeat in this fixture two years ago. Since then, City have won three of the sides' four meetings and must be strong favourites to take the points again here. Incredibly, only the bottom three have conceded more goals at home than Chelsea, while nobody else even comes close to City's 24 away goals so far. Also taking into account their stunning demolitions of Man.U. and Spurs on their own grounds, I think you should take advantage of a standout 19/10 on offer at bwin.com against an away win.

This week's selections promise the biggest payout of the season so far if all win their matches, so try a £10 fivefold on Sheffield United, Charlton, Ross, Dundee and Annan, which would return £136.58 with bet365 if everything went to plan.

Good luck!
Posted by Nick