February 10, 2011
At about 4:30pm on Saturday afternoon, I was probably enjoying the extraordinary and exhilarating entertainment being provided by most of our Premier League teams even more than most people, as last week's suggested bumper accumulator was heading for the most comfortable of victories. Man.City, Leicester, Raith, Annan and, yes, you've guessed it, Ar*"+al, were each at least two goals ahead in their matches, and a near 10/1 payout was within touching distance. Then came that now well-documented capitulation that has resulted in me requiring a new television, a visit to the vet for my cat to repair its broken ribs, and a decorator for my living room walls.
I've won and lost accumulators via last-minute goals. I've won and lost them by late penalties that should never have been awarded, or by the most unfortunate of own goals. But to lose what would have been the biggest payout of a relatively successful season so far with one of your selections throwing away a four goal lead is something that I'm not quite sure how to deal with. Actually, that's not quite true. I'll deal with it in the only way I know how. Have another bet this weekend and hope for the best!
The coming weekend's Premier League action cannot possibly match what we witnessed last Saturday, but the opening fixture promises to be a fiery, competitive match nevertheless:
1) Man.U. v Man.City: A temporary blip on the way to the title, or the start of a worrying run of results allowing the chasing pack to overtake them? That's the dilemma we face regarding Man.United's first League defeat of the season as we try to predict the outcome of the latest Manchester derby. United still boast a formidable home record this season, having dropped points in only one match and conceded just eight times, and their home record against City is equally impressive, with a solitary defeat having been registered in the last 31 meetings in League and Cup. City's away performances, which had been quite devastating earlier in the season, have tailed off dramatically recently, and they haven't won any of their last five on the road, including Cup matches at Leicester and Notts.County, so I think on this occasion, United may have enough going for them to gain at least a point and maintain their title challenge.
2) Arsenal v Wolves: Forgiveness and understanding haven't returned to my life since Saturday's traumatic events, so I hope Arsenal lose this match to a goal in the seventh minute of four minutes added time, deflected in off George Elokobi's hand from a clearly offside position while he is at the same time fouling three Arsenal defenders. What will probably happen though, is that Arsenal will take an early 4-0 hold and hold on to it.
3) Birmingham v Stoke: Birmingham's vital win at West Ham on Sunday lifted them out of the relegation zone, but they really need to start turning draws into wins at home if they are to stay clear of danger. Only twice have they been defeated at St.Andrew's this season, but seven draws from twelve home matches have provided a major contribution to their troubles so far. Stoke haven't enjoyed recent visits to St.Andrew's though, not having scored there on their last three visits, and I think another close match awaits them on Saturday. While Birmingham will obviously be buoyed by their win at Upton Park, I am still concerned by the number of draws they have recorded at home, and another one may be added to the total here.
4) Blackburn v Newcastle: Both of these sides seem comfortable in mid-table at first glance, but only five points separate them from the bottom three, so there is still much to worry about for both clubs. Accumulator drama aside, I am not convinced that Newcastle's comeback last weekend will spur them on to better results than they would otherwise have achieved over the next few weeks, as the fact remains that they were truly awful in the first half against Arsenal, and required a red card for the opposition and an extremely dubious penalty award to help them towards gaining a point from the match. Only Wolves have scored fewer away goals than United so far, and they cannot rely on penalties and wonder goals from midfielders to get them out of trouble in every fixture, so my hunch is that Rovers will be able to win this one to nil. Just.
5) Blackpool v Aston Villa: The panic button must surely be about to have seven shades of **** knocked out of it at Bloomfield Road, as five consecutive defeats leave the Tangerines placed precariously two points above the bottom three. Those five defeats have also seen them concede an unhealthy sixteen goals, so it is obvious that the admirable gung-ho approach they have adopted so far is no longer sufficient for them to survive this season. Whether there is a Plan B, we will surely find out soon, but Villa have improved significantly since the additions of Darren Bent and Kyle Walker to their line-up, and will be difficult to overcome on Saturday. As in most of Blackpool's matches so far, I can see both sides scoring, but I just think Villa will score one more than their hosts.
6) Liverpool v Wigan: Quietly and unspectacularly, Liverpool are getting quite a run going. Four straight wins without a single goal being conceded, and with Luis Suarez yet to be fully unleashed, and Raul Meireles now living up to his lofty reputation, Wigan may be in for a tough afternoon on Saturday. They have at least managed to give the Reds a couple of scares at Anfield recently, and have scored on their last three visits, but I think they may once again fall just short of providing a major shock.
7) West Brom v West Ham: I mentioned at the start of the season that Roberto di Matteo represented another one of the glamorous Chelsea side of the late 90s/early 00s who would probably end up as a media darling but gain little success as a manager, similar to Gianluca Vialli and Gianfranco Zola, and so it has proved as he was relieved of his duties following his side's convincing defeat last weekend. The timing could not have been worse for West Ham, who will no doubt face a side that will be stirred up by caretaker manager Michael Appleton, but there are similarities between this fixture and the recent one at Everton that so nearly saw the Hammers take three points. Only once in their last eight visits have West Ham lost at The Hawthorns, and they have also lost just one of their last five away League matches, so this remains a wide open game. There should be plenty of goals, and I don't think another 2-2 draw, as was played out between the sides in November, is an unlikely outcome.
8) Sunderland v Tottenham: Did anybody else find Steve Bruce's bright red and purple, puffy face absolutely hysterical following his side's late collapse at Stoke last weekend? I'd like to think we could see him that embarrassed again soon, but I'm not sure it will happen after this match. Three draws and two defeats have been Tottenham's results from their last five visits to the SOL, and they have been far from convincing recently despite having won their last two League matches. Perhaps the upcoming showdown with AC Milan has started to enter the minds of certain players, and that's why I think Sunderland will win this particular encounter.
9) Bolton v Everton: Quite why it took Louis Saha so long to spring into life this season must be a major conundrum for David Moyes. Having scored just once in his first sixteen appearances, he has gone on to register no fewer than eight goals in his last six matches. He may well add to that total on Sunday, and he also scored in this fixture last season but ended up on the losing side. With both sides in variable form, and as this has always proved an unpredictable fixture over recent years, it's not one to get involved in at all from a betting perspective.
10) Fulham v Chelsea: Monday night's match gives Fernando Torres a chance to get off the mark on a ground where his club have scored twice on each of their last four visits. However, what concerns me is that Carlo Ancelotti seemed to have absolutely no idea how to combine his three main strikers against Liverpool last Sunday, and whether he can sort that problem out prior to this match kicking off is open to question. With three moody individuals all wanting to start and having to be crowbarred into the side somehow to avoid much dummy-spitting, I am happy to side with a resurgent Fulham team to take all three points and heap further embarrassment on their rudderless neighbours.
Right, let's hope each of the following sides hold at least five goal leads heading into the last ten minutes of their matches so that we can relax a bit: A successful £10 accumulator on Cardiff, Hull, Southampton and Ross County would return £61.69 with bet365.com.
Good luck!
Posted by Nick