Flutterama blog

February 24, 2011

English Premier League Gameweek 28 Preview

With all of the renewed talk recently about a possible mid-winter break for English football, I thought I'd test the water and have arranged one for myself next week. If my week on the beach in Tenerife is successful, I will report back to the FA that I would like to see it introduced into the calendar permanently. However, I have a feeling that I'm going to be too concerned with trying to discover ways of finding out how my team is getting on this Saturday to relax too much. All this means that there won't be a bulletin next week, and I'll leave you with a potentially rewarding treble for the coming weekend after a preview of the next round of Premier League matches, which is slightly shorter than usual due to the League Cup final being played on Sunday:

1) Aston Villa v Blackburn: A distinct feature of meetings between these sides at Villa Park in recent years has been the number of goals scored. Loads of them in fact. In the last six renewals in League and Cup, no fewer than 28 goals have been shared, with Villa having come out on top on all but one occasion. It is also worth noting that when the sides met in the fourth round of the FA Cup a few weeks ago, a slightly weakened Villa line-up convincingly beat a full-strength Rovers team 3-1, so I think the most sensible conclusion to draw is that a home win may well be the outcome here, with three or four goals being scored in the process.

2) Everton v Sunderland: As a gambler, I like the comfortable feeling of knowing that there is a solid set of statistics behind a prediction of the outcome of any particular match, and those of you who fancy backing Everton to win on Saturday should relax in the knowledge that they have won seven and drawn the other two of their last nine visits from Sunderland in League and Cup. The icing on the cake is the fact that there have been trouncings of the order of 7-1, 3-0 and 5-0 amongst those victories, so put this down for a home win and just wait for the inevitable away win to put me right back in my place.

3) Newcastle v Bolton: Since their early concession of four goals against Arsenal, Newcastle have recorded consecutive clean sheets at Blackburn and Birmingham, so lessons have obviously been learned and learned quickly. United's defence couldn't ask for a more suitable match to make it three in a row, either, as Bolton haven't scored during their last two visits to St.James's Park, and despite two successive away wins in the FA Cup, have lost their last six League matches on the road. I don't expect it to be a massacre by any means, but I do expect a home win.

4) Wigan v Man.United: Admittedly, they have come close to snatching a draw on two or three occasions, but Wigan have played United twelve times in all competitions in their history and lost the lot. Having two players sent off at Old Trafford earlier in the season didn't help their cause at all, but even with eleven men on the pitch on Saturday, they may struggle to avoid another narrow defeat. I'm not confident enough about that outcome to include it in my weekend accumulator as there is always the nagging doubt over United's tendency to draw most of their away matches so far this season, but if Alex Ferguson sends a strong side out, they should just prevail.

5) Wolves v Blackpool: Blackpool are certainly proving the old saying "fortune favours the brave" to be true following yet another battering that actually resulted in a victory, this time against Tottenham on Tuesday. That victory propelled them way up the table, even though they sit just five points clear of trouble, and they have quite a shoddy record against Wolves to overturn if they are to maintain their rise up the table. David Seaman was celebrating his first birthday the last time Blackpool beat Wolves at Molineux in the League, but Wolves have had problems dealing with the lower placed sides in the division all season. A solitary victory over Birmingham is their only one against a team currently in the bottom half of the table, so Ian Holloway's adventurous side seem well placed to extend that record on Saturday by taking at least a point.

6) West Ham v Liverpool: West Ham fans must have been looking at consecutive fixtures against Blackpool, Birmingham and West Brom as an ideal opportunity to clamber out of the bottom three, but a damaging home defeat to the Blues knocked thier confidence to such an extent that a quite shocking first-half performance in their next match at the Hawthorns left them having to score three times to take just a point home. We've seen so often in the past that sides (including West Ham) manage to escape relegation following surprise wins against the better sides in the division when the chips are really down, so will this be one of those occasions? Not if you consider that Liverpool have scored three times in each of their last four meetings with West Ham. Not if you consider that Liverpool have won on five of their last six visits to Upton Park. Not if you consider that Liverpool are unbeaten in seven matches (prior to Thursday's Europa League tie, the result of which is unknown at the time of writing). In an unpredictable season, however, the chance is always there, so you might like to have a small crack at bet365's 9/1 against a 1-0 home win.

7) Man.City v Fulham: Remember what I was saying about the Everton match? Well, this fixture represents the other side of the coin, as the stats for this match hold all sorts of warning signs for you if you fancy including City on your coupons this weekend. Fulham's recent record at Man.City is quite impressive, with three wins and three draws from their last seven visits, so despite City's run of six consecutive home wins in League and Cup, I'm happy to side with Fulham taking a point home with them.

8) Stoke v West Brom: I'm having to write this before Stoke's 2-0 defeat having been reduced to ten men in an ill-tempered match at Arsenal on Wednesday (let's see how accurate that is!), but of more relevance to this fixture is Stoke's three consecutive home wins this year, and allied to the fact that West Brom have won just once in their last twelve matches in League and Cup, a home win seems the obvious outcome. Any doubts over that rest solely on the influence that the Baggies' new manager may bring to bear before this match is played, but I'm far more convinced by the recent record of this fixture, which has been won by City an incredible eleven times in the last twelve encounters. Home win.

Sometimes it's tempting to add extra selections into your accumulator when the potential return isn't particularly exciting, but as you are by definition adding games that you are not entirely convinced about, that tactic invariably ends in disappointment. So this week, I'm going to stick to a treble involving Dundee, Falkirk and Raith, which would return £29.17 with skybet.com to a £10 stake if all won their matches.

Good luck!
Posted by Nick