March 18, 2011
It seems like ages since I was last with you due to holidays, the FA Cup and the fixture calendar, but not an awful lot has changed except for the media now trying to hype up the title race again courtesy of two consecutive defeats for Manchester United and two consecutive victories for Chelsea. It will take plenty more than that to genuinely open up the possibility of a team other than United or Arsenal taking the Premier League, and the fixtures this coming weekend may just confirm that belief:
1) Tottenham v West Ham: I think we've seen more than enough puns using Demba Ba's name in the papers over the past few weeks, so I wouldn't be so crass as to use another one here, but his arrival, together with the long-awaited appearance of Thomas Hitzlsperger, has sparked a huge improvement in West Ham's firepower. In the four matches that Ba has started, the Hammers have scored an impressive fourteen goals, which could spell trouble for a Spurs defence that has conceded six times in their last two League matches. The upturn in West Ham's scoring record couldn't have come at a better time, as they have failed to score at all on their last four visits to White Hart Lane, and haven't won there for nearly twelve years, but I fancy them to score this time around, and they may even be able to provide the biggest upset of the weekend. Ba none.
2) Aston Villa v Wolves: Judging by previous renewals of this fixture, this one could be a cracker. Five of the previous six League meetings between these sides at Villa Park have featured four or more goals, and the odd one out still featured three goals! Furthermore, four of Villa's last five League games have also had four or more goals, and ten have been scored in Wolves' last two appearances. So, we know there will be twelve or thirteen goals shared on Saturday, but in what proportion? Well, Wolves' draw at Villa Park last season was the first time they had avoided defeat there in nine visits, and their away record is a shocker, with just a solitary win and only ten goals scored in fourteen matches, so I would imagine that another draw would be the best they can hope for here.
3) Blackburn v Blackpool: With two or three sides below them starting to pick up points, these are worrying times for both of these sides. Blackburn have picked up just one point from their last five League games, while Blackpool have won only one of their last nine games. At least Charlie Adam will be able to return after suspension for their first visit to Ewood Park for 31 years, and his presence should at least ensure they are more competitive than they have been in their last two defeats. As in the previous match, I expect both sides to score, but this is a tricky one to call with any confidence, so I am happy to plump for a score draw and hope for the best.
4) Man.U. v Bolton: In anticipation of this match, we are left pondering whether United's first experience this season of two consecutive defeats will have a lasting effect on their players' confidence. A run of ten consecutive home wins in the League should answer that question, but Bolton seem to have recovered from their own worrying run of away defeats with two away wins on the road in the FA Cup, and a creditable draw at Newcastle. They were only narrowly beaten at Old Trafford last season, but that extended their losing sequence there to seven, and I wouldn't put much confidence behind it, but I think they might just add an eighth to that list on Saturday.
5) Stoke v Newcastle: The increasingly exciting race to avoid relegation still features these two sides even though they sit in 12th and 10th place respectively. Inconsistency has been the downfall of both teams, and that makes this a very difficult match indeed to call, so I will simply rely on the possibility that the result may well be the same as it has been on the last two occasions this has taken place, and that the points will be shared in a low-scoring encounter.
6) West Brom v Arsenal: Arsenal have suddenly been reduced from four realistic trophy targets to just one, and this is quite simply the sort of match they must win if they are not to let the title race slip out of their grasp as well. This is their first away League match since their incredible 4-4 draw at Newcastle six weeks ago, and I believe there is every chance that they will take another convincing lead here, but manage to hold on to it this time around. West Brom's last three home matches have seen them draw against each of the three sides currently in the relegation zone, and I'm not sure that they will be able to resist the speedy attacks that are bound to be created by their visitors, who have won by two goals on each of their last two visits to the Hawthorns, and may well do so again.
7) Wigan v Birmingham: Whichever way you look at it, these two sides thoroughly deserve their place in the battle to avoid relegation. Nobody has won fewer games than the paltry five and six they have registered respectively, and their totals of 27 goals scored each are way below those recorded by the other sides in the division. Neither side has won any of their last three League games, and with Wigan looking likely to lose touch with the sides above them, I would suggest that their need for the points is greater, but even taking into account Birmingham's injury problems, I'm not sure whether they will get more than one.
8) Everton v Fulham: As we found out a few weeks ago with Sunderland, there are some sides that simply don't have successful visits to Goodison Park. Fulham are one of them. Believe it or not, they have been beaten on their last 17 (as on the videprinter, I will confirm that in capitals - SEVENTEEN) League visits, which is really quite amazing considering that Everton have suffered some pretty poor form at times during that period. Having drawn at Aston Villa and Man.City on their last two road trips, it is arguable that Fulham are well placed to finally bring an end to that record this weekend, but if they do, I would suggest that it is far more likely to be by way of a draw than a victory.
9) Sunderland v Liverpool: The race to get involved with the ludicrously long-drawn out and over-complicated Europa League continues with this meeting of two of the season's also-rans. Sunderland are without a win in five while Liverpool have been in infuriating form from a punter's point of view, with victory over Chelsea followed by a home draw with Wigan, and defeat at West Ham coming just before a comfortable win over Man.United. Prior to last season's beachball fiasco, Liverpool had been in good form at Sunderland, with just one other defeat in their previous 27 (TWENTY SEVEN) visits in League and Cup. Injury to Steven Gerrard always tempers your enthusiasm over backing Liverpool, but I do fancy them here in what should be a low-scoring encounter.
10) Chelsea v Man.City: So Chelsea are apparently credible title chasers again after victories over Man.U. and Blackpool despite a nine point deficit with ten games to play. Bigger margins have been eaten into in the past, but while it is evident that the Blues have raised their game over the past couple of weeks, I can't imagine Man.U. in particular collapsing spectacularly enough to let the title slip. Memories are also still quite fresh of City's comfortable victory at Stamford Bridge last season, so this will certainly be a convincing test of how much ground Chelsea can recover on the sides above them. These two don't tend to draw very much, and in fact there have been eleven consecutive meetings without that result. The importance of this match leads me to believe that both sides will be giving their all and that we may again see one side coming out on top, and in the current circumstances, I feel that may just be the home side.
Erring on the side of caution is not on the agenda this week as I am unable to narrow down my selections to fewer than five for this week's suggested accumulator. A successful £10 five-fold on Huddersfield, Aldershot, Hearts, Dunfermline and Albion would return £79.62 with skybet.com.
Good luck!
Posted by Nick