Flutterama blog

May 19, 2011

English Premier League Gameweek 38 Preview

So, here we go. This is why we all love football. Two to get relegated from five teams all within one point of each other, four of them with extremely closely matched goal difference, and the two of them on the highest points tally having to play each other, not knowing whether a convenient draw will actually only be convenient to relegate one or both of them. Sunday promises to be one of those days that really lives up to the hysteria whipped up on too many occasions by Sky, and all of a sudden a trip to Old Trafford for a one-off do-or-die encounter doesn't seem like such an obvious home win. A home banker against fellow relegation strugglers when you have just recorded consecutive 3-1 wins suddenly becomes a nerve-ridden fixture fraught with danger. Neutrals will love every second of it. Fans of the sides involved will experience either the best or worst that supporting a team has to offer, and some will endure both. I can't wait.

1) Aston Villa v Liverpool: Both of these sides recorded inexplicable results last Sunday, but with Liverpool needing to better Tottenham's result on Sunday to qualify for European football, they may just have the most incentive to try and take the three points here. Villa have regularly disappointed against Liverpool in recent seasons, having scored just three goals during Liverpool's last eleven visits to Villa Park (one of which was a penalty), and not having beaten them at home since 1998. I fancy Liverpool to swiftly get back to winning ways here.

2) Bolton v Man.City: Victory here will confirm automatic Champions League qualification for City, but to achieve that, they will have to record their first League win at Bolton in seven years. Given their hosts' current form, though, that is a more than likely outcome, as Bolton have lost their last four matches, and look to be there for the taking.

3) Everton v Chelsea: One of a few games with absolutely nothing riding on it, but it is worth noting that the only time Chelsea have beaten Everton in their last eight attempts was in the 2009 FA Cup Final. On current form, I wouldn't back them to improve that record on Sunday.

4) Fulham v Arsenal: Just a few short weeks since looking to have valid claims for a title challenge, Arsenal are now having to struggle to avoid having to play in the Champions League qualifiers, and given their recent form of three losses in their last four matches, I wouldn't hold out much hope of them taking maximum points from this game. Fulham recovered well from their mauling at the hands of Liverpool to cruise past a sorry looking Birmingham, and have beaten the Gunners at Craven Cottage on two of the last four occasions on which this fixture has been played. There hasn't been a draw in this fixture at Fulham's ground since 1967, so perhaps this could be the year for that run to come to a halt.

5) Man.U. v Blackpool: Blackpool could possibly survive even if they lose this game, but you can guarantee that they will be going all out for a win nevertheless, and attacking United straight from the kick-off. Suicidal? Maybe, but that's the only way they know how to play and it has brought them some exceptional results this season. I remember Hull trying the same approach on their first Premier League trip to Old Trafford, and just losing 4-3, while you will recall that Blackpool led United 2-0 in the reverse fixture before succumbing to a familiar late burst of three goals from the Champions. So, this is not a home banker by any means, and one way or another, as Blackpool's 37 games so far have yielded 127 goals, I expect both keepers to have a very busy afternoon.

6) Newcastle v West Brom: A meaningless fixture this may be, but it does round off a relatively successful season of consolidation for both sides having just been promoted from the Championship. It's amazing what lengths you have to go to to preview a fixture of so little consequence that will probably feature a number of unfamiliar faces, but I certainly think it's worth pointing out that West Brom's last League win at Newcastle occurred on the same day that the last execution by guillotine took place in France. Who says this column isn't educational?

7) Stoke v Wigan: The last three meetings between these sides have ended all square, but with Wigan so desperate to win this match, they will have to take risks which make predicting the outcome on Sunday quite tricky. Stoke seemed a very deflated side at Eastlands on Tuesday, but you can be sure that Tony Pulis will not accept a repeat performance, and his chairman will also be aware that they face a potentially huge drop in prize money if they lose this game, as they could drop five places if other results go against them. On balance, though, I fancy Wigan's more creative players to come to the fore and achieve the victory that may see them clamber above the danger zone.

8) Tottenham v Birmingham: Throughout the past few weeks, I have never had the impression that Birmingham's players, fans or management have seriously thought they may go down, but the way the final day fixtures have fallen provides them with a monumental task to stay up. Strange results are common on the last day though, and Birmingham have at least put up a decent showing on their last two visits to White Hart Lane, having won their penultimate encounter there, and only succumbing to a last minute winner last season. Tottenham need a win to hold off Liverpool in the battle for Europa League qualification, so we should see a tense but open match, and I think City may be left to wonder just how they managed to let relegation creep up on them.

9) West Ham v Sunderland: The match that West Ham fans would have been looking forward to as providing an escape route for them now represents nothing more than a wake. Both sets of fans have endured a desperately disappointing period in recent weeks, and the outcome here depends on which group of players still have any desire left to put up a convincing performance. Despite West Ham having won the last four renewals of this fixture, I feel that events on and off the field over the last week may just see them go down with a whimper.

10) Wolves v Blackburn: While Blackburn have a distinct goal difference advantage over their fellow relegation candidates, they are due to face a team on Sunday who have achieved two consecutive and impressive victories. Wolves haven't beaten Blackburn in their last seven meetings, but you can discount previous history when trying to predict a hugely important and competitive match such as this one. In fact, you can safely discount any information as being useful, since this will be an entirely unpredictable match, but one for the neutrals to thoroughly enjoy.

For my last recommendation of the season (thank heavens for that, I hear you say), I fancy a double including Liverpool and Man.City, which would return £40.50 to a £10 stake with bluesq.com if both won their matches.

Good luck and enjoy your summer!
Posted by Nick