May 5, 2011
OK, I'm starting to get rather hacked off now. My run of missing out on accumulator payouts by just one result is reaching ridiculous proportions, and last weekend's five selections were let down by Livingston's inexplicable inability to put paid to a Dumbarton side they had defeated three times already earlier in the season. At least my suggestion to back a 3-0 win for Liverpool at odds of 23/2 somewhat made up for the accumulator's downfall. As the coming weekend is the last for the Football League this season, opportunites are obviously limited from now on, but I'll have another go following a look at the coming weekend's Premier League fixtures:
1) Aston Villa v Wigan: The estimated number of points required for survival seems to be reducing by the week, and Wigan have three more than passable chances remaining to gain the four points I imagine would suffice, starting with a fixture that they have excelled in since becoming a Premier League club. They have visited Villa Park five times for League matches and remain undefeated there, so there should be no shortage of confidence heading into Saturday's showdown. In fact, in the eleven League meetings between these two at either side's ground, there has been only one home win, and I don't see a second one occurring this time around. Whether Wigan can manage to repeat last season's impressive 2-0 win is open to question, but I don't think they will leave empty-handed.
2) Bolton v Sunderland: As soon as Sunderland gained the points necessary for survival, they put in another embarrassing display to suffer a heavy home defeat to one of the League's worst travellers. Another similar performance would surely be punished by a Bolton side who, while they have been hugely disappointing on the road, remain one of the League's best performing teams at home, as only the top five have won more of their home League games so far. Last season, Darren Bent's solitary goal secured three points for the visitors in this fixture, but personally, I think they will have to wait until next season before they can celebrate another win.
3) Everton v Man.City: Seventh place seemed a distant destination for Everton earlier this season, but a run of one defeat in their last nine (a narrow one at Old Trafford) has resulted in another satisfactory season's work for David Moyes. They remain one of only two sides to have defeated City at Eastlands this season, and will be looking to take advantage of their visitors' nervous recent away performances on Saturday. City's late winner at Blackburn provided them with their first win in eleven attempts away from home in all competitions, and with Tottenham falling away, there isn't the urgency to amass points for Champions League qualification that there was a few weeks ago, so both sides may well be happy to share the spoils here.
4) Newcastle v Birmingham: With St.James's Park constantly being touted (mainly by the locals and Kevin Keegan) as one of the more intimidating grounds for teams to visit, I was rather surprised to find out that only Blackpool and Wigan have won fewer home games than Newcastle this season. This match presents them with an ideal opportunity to improve that record, as nobody has won fewer away games than Birmingham. City have also won just once in their last eleven League visits to Newcastle, and may have to wait for next week's visit from Fulham before confirming their survival.
5) West Ham v Blackburn: Similar to Wigan, West Ham have been treated kindly by the fixture list and have three winnable matches left, but probably need six or seven more points to have a chance of survival. It's probably a good thing, therefore, that they face a visit on Saturday from a side who haven't won away this year, and who have failed to win at Upton Park for over seventeen years. Defeat would drag Rovers back into the sights of those behind them in the table, and I think that may well be the outcome of what could be an ill-tempered and hard-fought encounter.
6) Tottenham v Blackpool: If West Ham and Wigan have had the luck of the draw with their remaining fixtures, Blackpool are undoubtedly the team with the short straw firmly in their grasp, and their home match with Bolton next week is the ultimate "must-win" game for them. The only encouragement I can offer them for this fixture is that Tottenham have developed a habit over the last two seasons of suffering embarrassing home defeats to lowly teams such as Wigan and Wolves, and also succumbed to Blackpool at Bloomfield Road in a match they had enough chances to have won four times over. The continuing blind faith shown by Harry Redknapp in Heurelho Gomes is also a cause for optimism amongst Blackpool fans, however, the continuing poor form of the Tangerines' driving force from earlier in the season, Charlie Adam, remains a worry, and a heavy beating could result here.
7) Wolves v West Brom: Derby games are notoriously difficult to predict, and when you throw Wolves' fight for survival into the mix as well, this particular one becomes even more difficult to determine. West Brom may have secured their safety a while ago, but will still be eager to push their rivals closer to the Championship, and they have an admirable record in this fixture recently, having lost just two of the last nine renewals. When you also consider that they haven't lost any of their last four away matches, and have scored in all of their last ten matches, Wolves may be in for a testing afternoon on Sunday.
8) Stoke v Arsenal: Chelsea won't be the only ones hoping that they win at Old Trafford on Sunday, as quite incredibly, Arsenal will also be left with a chance of snatching the title if that is the outcome later on and the Gunners take the points here. That will certainly be easier said than done though, as Stoke have shown few signs of having their attention diverted by the impending FA Cup Final against Man.City and may well be able to provide further frustration for the Gunners' fans.
9) Man.U.v Chelsea: I'm sure that, back in February, even the most ardent of Chelsea's fans would not have believed that they would come into this fixture with a chance of going top of the table, but victory here would put the title back in their side's own hands with just two games to play. To achieve that, they would have to become just the second side to avoid defeat at Old Trafford this season. Last season's 2-1 win there was the Blues' only success in the last seven attempts in all competitions and their only two failures in their last seven matches this season have come in the Champions League quarter final encounters with Man.United. They were extremely fortunate to beat Spurs last weekend and while many will expect them to complete their transformation with a win on Sunday, I can see them falling just short and leaving United with two straightforward fixtures with which to secure the title.
10) Fulham v Liverpool: There is nothing really riding on this match but it should nevertheless provide an interesting encounter between two sides who are finishing the season much more strongly than they started it. Fulham's last two games have resulted in 3-0 wins, while Liverpool have recorded 3-0 and 5-0 wins in their last two, so perhaps we can expect an open, attacking match on Monday night. It's not really a relevant statistic, but I note that there hasn't been a draw between these two at Craven Cottage since 1983. Liverpool have, however, won eight of the subsequent twelve meetings, but maybe with Fulham's home form remaining relatively strong, that long-awaited draw may be the outcome here.
Right, let's try another treble this weekend. A successful £10 bet involving Middlesbrough, Swansea and Tranmere would return £46.88 with skybet.com. Will they all hang on this time?
Good Luck!
Posted by Nick