September 29, 2011
Just like the previous week, there was bad news followed by slightly better news for followers of the weekly accumulator. Once again, we suffered as one of the selections threw away a two goal lead to draw 2-2, but once again, as the bet had been advised with Paddy Power, they kindly returned our stakes as all five teams had been winning at half time. Usually when bookmakers make such offers, they advertise the worst odds on the matches involved, but for the last couple of weeks, Paddy Power have actually offered the best odds against our selections, so I have been happy to accommodate them. Other bookmaker offers include Victor Chandler offering your losing stakes back if only one selection lets you down, so sometimes it may even be worth taking slightly reduced odds to have the insurance of such a fallback position in your favour. While I try and work out what to have a bet on this weekend, let's take a look at the next batch of Premier League fixtures:
1) Everton v Liverpool: An exceptionally tough fixture to work out for starters this week as both of these sides have proved rather inconsistent so far this season, and both also experienced differing fortunes as a result of deflected goals last time out. At least Steven Gerrard's return from injury looks set to give the Reds a boost whether he starts this match or not, and I can't see his teammates repeating the tepid performance they gave in this fixture last season when they were deservedly beaten 2-0. I find it rather surprising that none of the last eleven meetings between these two at Goodison has ended in a draw, but I would find it rather less surprising if this one bucked that trend.
2) Aston Villa v Wigan: Villa's record of five draws from six matches owes much to Alex McLeish's astonishing lack of adventure in his preferred style of play, and had his team not waited until half time at QPR to start attacking, they may have come away with all three points. Villa have a strange record against Wigan. While they have won on their last four visits to the DW, they have never won a home League match against Saturday's opponents in six attempts. With Wigan having lost three and drawn one away from home so far in League and Cup, and shorn of their best player, a record like that surely has to end sooner rather than later, and this weekend may see that time come.
3) Blackburn v Man.City: Had City not decided to sit on a two goal lead at Fulham a couple of weeks ago, they would now be on their own at the top of the table, but instead, they are now faced with the more difficult of the two fixtures scheduled for the Manchester clubs if they are to stay level with United on points this weekend. Their last two visits to Ewood Park have brought victories, but City have made heavy weather of gaining them, and can't afford to switch off if they manage to take the lead on Saturday, as Arsenal found to their cost when they really should have sewn up a win during Blackburn's last home match. I fancy this one to go the same way as the last two renewals, but I wouldn't be so confident as to include City in any bets this weekend.
4) Man.U. v Norwich: Norwich have made a more than pleasing start to life back at the top level, but this match may well be a step too far for them at the moment. Due to one or two significant injuries, and United's draining midweek Champions League encounter, it's rather tricky to make any accurate predicitons. The fact that historically Norwich rarely receive absolute canings at Old Trafford would lead me away from taking odds of no better than 1/6 against a United win, so perhaps more of a sporting interest would be provided by Boylesports's offer of 7/4 against Norwich winning with a two goal start.
5) Sunderland v West Brom: I said at the start of the season that Steve Bruce would have absolutely no excuses for poor performances by his side following the extensive backing he received in the transfer market over the summer, and with his team having put in another lacklustre display at Norwich on Monday, alarm bells may soon be starting to ring at the SOL. Their visitors on Saturday are in even worse shape, however, sitting one off the bottom having failed to capitalise on decent displays against superior opposition in their first two matches, and having found the net just once in their last four games. I would imagine that Sunderland's players will be left in no doubt at training this week just how disappointing Monday's display was, and the home truths they should hear may just spur them on to putting on just enough of a show to beat the Baggies here.
6) Wolves v Newcastle: Since their fine start to the season, Wolves have now lost three on the trot, while Newcastle continue to boast one of the four remaining unbeaten records so far without ever having looked entirely convincing. Stat of the week is that Wolves have scored one goal on each of their last six League meetings with Newcastle, and I would be inclined to believe that the same may occur on Saturday, with the visitors also finding the net once for a repeat of last season's 1-1 draw at Molineux.
7) Bolton v Chelsea: It has become abundantly clear over the last few weeks that Bolton's trouncing of QPR on the opening day was due to their hosts' former shortcomings rather than any significant improvement in Wanderers' form. They have lost ten of their last eleven League matches, and their recent record against Chelsea makes for grim reading as well. Only once in the last seven meetings in League and Cup have Bolton even managed to score, the last eight meetings at the Reebok have ended in defeats to nil, and in four of the last six encounters home and away, Chelsea have managed to score four times. Away win.
8) Fulham v QPR: The way their side is set up, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if QPR ended up with a better away record than at home this season, as they don't seem comfortable coping with teams who just want to get ten men behind the ball and attack on the break, whereas when Rangers are the visitors, they invariably have more freedom for their creative midfielders to, well, create. Both of Rangers' wins so far have come on the road, while Fulham haven't even looked like securing a League win on anybody's ground, but the atmosphere of a full house and a local derby should benefit them on Sunday. This is a surprisingly rare derby match, but in the four most recent meetings, Rangers have failed to score, and with neither side boasting a huge goal threat so far, I fancy a low scoring draw here.
9) Swansea v Stoke: Swansea are yet to concede a goal at home this season while Stoke haven't scored more than one in any game so far, so this match may prove rather more of a test than many neutrals would imagine following Stoke's energetic draw aginst Man.U. last week. Matches between these sides are usually tight affairs, with none of the last twelve meetings in League and Cup being decided by more than a one goal margin, and I don't imagine anything different this time around. Stoke's only really disappointing performance this season came after an arduous midweek trip to Ukraine, but as this week's Europa League tie sees them playing at home, I don't imagine they will suffer the same outcome on Sunday, and a low-scoring draw may well be the result.
10) Tottenham v Arsenal: Judging by the last two previews, White Hart Lane looks the place to be for goals on Sunday, with these sides having shared an incredible 36 goals in their last eight encounters in League and Cup (and that includes a 0-0 draw amongst that lot!). Arsenal have won just one of the last six League meetings with Spurs, and their fans will be full of trepidation heading across North London due to Tottenham having found their form with three consecutive wins, but the extra incentive provided by this derby should get a bit more out of Arsenal's players than they have shown so far this season, and I can see another high-scoring draw being the outcome.
I've always feared this day, but never imagined that it would really arrive. I mean, surely from a full fixture list in England and Scotland, there must be at least three matches to compile into an accumulator? Not this week. Sides in form are away to other sides in form. Teams out of form are playing even worse teams. 67 games and I can't be confident about the outcome of more than one of them, so I'll just have to accept it and wait until next week.
Or will I? I can't not have a bet, so maybe just a speculative punt on both sides to score in the matches at Blackpool, Hartlepool, Torquay, Arbroath and Stirling on William Hill's imaginatively named "Both teams to score?" coupon. A successful £10 stake would return exactly £100.
Good Luck!
Posted by Nick