Flutterama blog

January 13, 2012

English Premier League Gameweek 21 Preview

One of the pleasant surprises of the season at Premier League level  is that only two managers have lost their jobs so far: the overrated Steve Bruce whose departure has seen an immediate upturn in the fortunes of Sunderland overseen by the quite astonishing managerial skills of Martin O’Neill, and now Neil Warnock, who was so desperate to prove that he could be a successful manager at the top level following a disastrous Premier League season with Sheffield United. Despite a dramatic turnaround for QPR following Warnock’s arrival at the club in 2010, and promotion at the first attempt, nagging doubts remain that a first class Championship manager is as high an accolade as he can be credited with, and there are similarities with West Brom’s situation last season. Roberto di Matteo found himself out of a job mid-season despite having taken the Baggies up at the first attempt, and Roy Hodgson was brought in to steer the side into relative comfort in the table. Changing your manager during the transfer window is a huge gamble, but if Mark Hughes lives up to his billing, QPR could well benefit from a similarly bold move to that made by West Brom’s board last year.

The Premier League returns this weekend following a break for the FA Cup, and we start this week’s preview at Villa Park:

Aston Villa v Everton: This should prove a more suitable task for Everton following their tough night at Tottenham on Wednesday, especially as no side outside the top six has won more away games than the Toffees. They do have a poor recent record at Villa Park to overcome, though, not having won on any of their last six visits, but Villa have lost their last four at home, so with that many negatives on both sides, I’d have to plump for a score draw here.

Blackburn v Fulham: Blackburn have lost their last three home League games 2-1, but you would have thought that a fourth such scoreline would be unlikely as it would require Fulham to score two goals in the same match away from home, which is a feat that they have managed just once this season. They have also failed to win at Ewood Park on their last six visits, and a Rovers side who haven’t had as many problems scoring goals as you would expect from a side bottom of the table, having outscored everybody else in the lower half so far, should be able to secure a valuable point from a score draw on Saturday.

Chelsea v Sunderland: Sunderland are opponents worth avoiding at the moment as Martin O’Neill’s initial influence has been little short of astounding, and Chelsea fans will need no reminding of the result in last season’s renewal of this fixture, which the visitors won 3-0. In fact, there have been a fantastic number of goals scored between these two in recent years, with no fewer than 35 in the last 7 meetings, so perhaps we can expect more fireworks on Saturday. Sunderland have won their last three away games in League and Cup, while Chelsea failed to beat either Fulham or Villa in their last two home League games, so I think fanciful odds of 9/1 against a Sunderland victory may not look quite so fanciful come 5 o’clock on Saturday.

Liverpool v Stoke: Just the sort of fixture that Liverpool fans have come to dread in recent seasons as the number of points lost at Anfield against sides outside the top seven mounts. Having said that, nearly 29 years have passed since the last Stoke goal at Anfield in a League match, so perhaps their best hope here would be to hold out for a goalless draw. Having taken convincing beatings at Man.City and Arsenal this season though, I feel another defeat awaits them on Saturday.

Man.U.v Bolton: Not many people were predicting that United would come back from two embarrassing defeats to win at Man.City in the FA Cup, but that confidence boost was achieved nevertheless, and they are now presented with what should be a straightforward task in getting their League campaign back on track. However, a home match with Blackburn should have been an even more straightforward task, so best odds of 1/6 against a home win don’t interest me in the slightest, particularly as Bolton held out until the 88th minute before succumbing in this fixture last season.

Tottenham v Wolves: Assuming he’s not in jail by then, Harry Redknapp must surely have secured an offer for the England job in the summer, now that his team are sitting level with Man.United three points off the top of the table. As Man.City and Chelsea are the only sides to have stopped Spurs winning at White Hart Lane this season, I don’t fancy a Wolves side, who have scored just eight goals in ten away matches so far, repeating their shock result at Arsenal over the festive period, and if Tottenham can get off the mark early, this could be settled by a wide margin.

West Brom v Norwich: I think it’s about time that Norwich, rather than being blindly lauded for attacking their Premier League campaign with a positive approach, are exposed as the masters of gamesmanship and pushing the boundaries of the rules of the game that they have become. Grant Holt has been a master of the darker side of the game for some time, but his teammates, no doubt under instruction from above, have swiftly learnt from him, and further controversies will surely follow as they parade their underhand tactics up and down the country. As for this match, West Brom have comfortably the lowest total of goals scored at home, with just seven in ten matches, and as Norwich are unbeaten in their last three on the road, I think a low-scoring draw may be on the cards.

Newcastle v QPR: So much has happened at Loftus Road since the last League game, that it is impossible to gauge what sort of effort they will be able to put in for this match. Both sides are suffering from losing their top players to the African Cup Of Nations (Ba, Tiote, Taarabt and Traore), so this is probably one to leave out of any betting calculations, even though it is desperately tempting to back Newcastle for all you are worth given the fact that Rangers have accumulated just two points from their last eight matches.

Swansea v Arsenal: Swansea’s powerful home stats were finally backed up with an away win last time out at Villa, and Arsenal will need to take note of how much of a struggle Spurs had to take a point from the Liberty on New Year’s Eve. The Gunners also found it tricky to overcome Swansea at The Emirates earlier in the season, with just a solitary goal separating the teams, and they may well have to be happy with a point from this encounter on Sunday.

Wigan v Man.City: They may have suffered two embarrassing defeats in the Cup this week, but I’m sure that City will be able to take out their frustration on a Wigan side that has conceded 11 goals in their last three League games.

Four selections comprise a potentially tasty accumulator this week. A £10 fourfold on Accrington, Falkirk, Ross and Man.City would return £69.09 with stanjames.com if all won their matches.

Good Luck!
Posted by Nick